tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post7830279486373709830..comments2023-12-24T13:03:35.696+00:00Comments on Miserable Old Fart: Lies, Damned Lies and Welsh PollsAlwyn ap Huwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06194724336424525283noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-19242795777073294292007-04-15T20:10:00.000+01:002007-04-15T20:10:00.000+01:00The figures came from the BBC the 30% was a typo s...The figures came from the BBC the 30% was a typo so I have changed that. I assume that the BBC rounded up the results to the nearest whole numbers, which is accurate enough to show how wrong the polls were.<BR/><BR/>I don't think that there is any intentional party political bias in any of the polls, its just that we are without a tradition of polling in Wales, similar to the UK wide tradition orAlwyn ap Huwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06194724336424525283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-79338906023566458142007-04-15T16:35:00.000+01:002007-04-15T16:35:00.000+01:00Some good points but I'm not sure where you got yo...Some good points but I'm not sure where you got your figures from.<BR/><BR/>You've got the 1999 results about right, but the 2003 election results (regional ballot) were:<BR/>Labour 36.6%<BR/>Plaid Cymru 19.7%<BR/>Conservatives 19.2%<BR/>Liberal Democrat 12.7%<BR/><BR/>The HTV/NOP poll from April 2003 estimated:<BR/>Labour 39%<BR/>Plaid Cymru 31%<BR/>Conservatives 11%<BR/>Liberal Democrats 15%<BRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-16010424568963824312007-04-14T22:25:00.000+01:002007-04-14T22:25:00.000+01:00The HTV poll shows % voting for seats and regions ...The HTV poll shows % voting for seats and regions as virtually identical because people are not generally aware of the effect one has on the other. The only decent poll would be to ask about the 40 seats, calculate the results, then go back to the same people and explain what would have happened in the 40 seats before asking them how they would then vote for the 20 regionals. It's not going to David Thomashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15000273282671213335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-6874525896505004192007-04-12T06:19:00.000+01:002007-04-12T06:19:00.000+01:00I've changed nothing, Mr Old Fart. You claimed the...I've changed nothing, Mr Old Fart. You claimed the 1999 poll put PC at the same level as its '97 share. It didn't. It put them 2% higher. That this difference was within the margin of error doesn't change the fact that it was still 2% higher.<BR/><BR/>That's not me changing the sums. That's you getting your facts wrong. Like you got Labour's 2003 share wrong. By 10%.Normal Mouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07374935277497669293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-90394276153912500542007-04-12T03:06:00.000+01:002007-04-12T03:06:00.000+01:00Typical Labor tactics Normal Mouth - if the sums d...Typical Labor tactics Normal Mouth - if the sums don't suit change the sums. The difference between predicted and actual levels in my post is percentage points not a percentage of a percentage.<BR/><BR/>The difference between Plaid's 10% actual vote in 1997 and its 12% poll prediction in 1999 is flat-lining within the + /- 3% rules of British psephology.<BR/><BR/>Of course if you really want to Alwyn ap Huwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06194724336424525283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-56628124380033776082007-04-09T07:09:00.000+01:002007-04-09T07:09:00.000+01:00Labour's share in 2003 wasn't 30%, it was 40%.The ...Labour's share in 2003 wasn't 30%, it was 40%.<BR/><BR/>The 1999 poll didn't put PC's ahare at it's 1997 level, it put it 20% higher (12% compared to 9.9%)<BR/><BR/>If Labour's share falls by 4% and PC's stands still, PC do not necessarily gain two seats. It depends on distribution.Normal Mouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07374935277497669293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-25660476993292003312007-04-06T18:05:00.000+01:002007-04-06T18:05:00.000+01:00Agreed. The failure of the Welsh media to provide ...Agreed. The failure of the Welsh media to provide regular polling points to a real democratic deficit. Having a one-off poll is not enough, especially as there are doubts about the scientific robustness of the sampling.<BR/> It'd almost be better to do without and rely on election night...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120478390983403863.post-79802679342443741772007-04-06T14:29:00.000+01:002007-04-06T14:29:00.000+01:00Diolch, Alwyn. This has to be the most informative...Diolch, Alwyn. This has to be the most informative post on the poll that I've read.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com