Politicall Betting has a poll that makes fantastic reading for Plaid Cymru. It is an UK wide poll by Comres for the Independent and gives the parties the following vote share:
CON 37:
LAB 37:
LD 11:
BNP 9%:
SNP 5%:
GRN 4%:
PC 4%:
UKIP 4%:
OTHERS 13%.
As Wales makes up just 5% of the UK vote, for Plaid to have 4% of the UK vote it would have to poll about 80% in Wales itself. Should we get the champagne out or just put this down to yet further proof that polls are rubbish?
And those number add up to 100% then??? Erm, no! Those figures can't be right. Gwaetha'r modd.
ReplyDeleteI think this means 4% within Wales. Quite a disappointying figure, if that's true.
ReplyDeleteThere's a margin for error of 3% - so the poll's probably fine.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is a missing decimal points, the BNP should be 0.9% Others should be 1.3% and Plaid should be 0.4%
ReplyDeleteWell spotted anon.
ReplyDeletePlaid is perhaps actually 0.2% the way it's going even that will be better then expected.
The Plaid national vote 'only' went down to 19% at the Assembly elections. It's still one of the strongest nationalist parties in Europe. But it needs to be higher otherwise Labour get away with being crap and anti-Welsh.
ReplyDeleteOne of the problems is whether you'll actually vote for a party or whether you support one. Like a lot of us, I live in England, and never dream of supporting any other than Plaid Cymru. They don't put up candidates here though, for some reason - nor even in Oswestry or west Herefordshire. If SUPPORT is being counted Plaid Cymru might well score 4% or higher. A lot of ex-properlabour people, for instance, think well of what they've read. The old Irish Nationalist party used to hold a seat in Liverpool, by the way.
ReplyDeletePlaid Cymru target seats at the next UK General Election??
ReplyDeleteEllesmere Port and Neston
Chester City
Eddisbury
North Shropshire
Shrewsbury and Atcham
Ludlow
North Herefordshire
Hereford and South Herefordshire
If Plaid Cymru were to stand a candidate in an English constituency at election, I recommend the Mayor of London 2012.
ReplyDeleteApart from being an interesting aside to assess party support outside Wales it would be an opportunity for the party to make a splash with the London-based UK media. Could be a fantastic marketing tool. the concept would be a copywriters dream and would get significant coverage, though with no prospect of winning.
What about Adam Price? He's available and would go down well on the media circuit. Would do a lot for the party's profile in Wales as well as in the rest of the UK.