There has been some discussion of late about creating a New Nationalist Party in Wales, by people who are as peeved with Plaid as I often am.
My general attitude is one of the more the merrier. Many different organisations pleading the national cause from differing viewpoints can only benefit the overall cause of national self determination.
The problem that I have with almost every proponent of a new nationalist party is the lack of ambition; almost all proponents of such a party seem to want to oppose Plaid Cymru!
Why?
Plaid Cymru has 3 out of 40 MPs, 11 out of 60 AMs, gained 19% of the vote in the last Assembly elections on a turnout of just 42% - less than 10% of those eligible to vote. A new nationalist party that just wants to steal a portion of Plaid's vote is a waste of time and would dilute the national cause – what gain would there be for the general cause if there were 3 or 4 more unionist Assembly Members in the Senedd as a result of the New National Party splitting the Plaid vote?
If a New National Party was formed that could appeal to the 58% of those who couldn't be arsed to vote in 2011, or that took votes from the Unionist Labour Party or the Unionist Conservative Party or the Federalist Lib Dems – I might be interested, but I just can't see the point of a new party that restricts its ambition to pinching a small part of Plaid's electoral support because of petty ideological spite.
Six months ago I would have said, yeah, can I vote for a proper Welsh Independence party? However, I'm willing to give the new leader a chance, see what direction the party moves in the next few months.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, of course, in that another nationalist party would just split the nat vote, rather than double it.
I agree that we need two or three nationalist parties, but only if we had STV. However, for the time bing we should let Leanne see what she can do.
ReplyDeletePenddu
Penddu, even under PR two or three national parties fighting for the same small proportion of the vote is a waste of time. Be it through Plaid or another party the 90% who don't vote for any sort of national ism yet should be the target!
ReplyDeleteThere's no point Alwyn. The electorate is too small. The Basque nationalist parties get between 50 - 60% of the vote. The Welsh nationalist vote is somewhere between 10 - 20%, maybe 25% on a good day and maybe drawing in some who vote for other parties.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Alwyn in that if the new nationalist movement offer something different, more to the right for example, then this could attract new nationalists who wouldn’t consider Plaid before because of their ever increasing leftist views.
ReplyDeleteCompetition for the nationalist vote could prove to be very healthy, we already have two major unionist parties in Labour (left) and Tory (right), why not have the same option for the nationalist voters.
We'd be better off joining the Tory party and turning it into a pro-federalist party.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with that Informer, as you know is that the unionists are backed up by dozens of pro-unionist media outlets. There isn't a single pro-Wales media outlet.
ReplyDeleteRather than just splitting the vote it might be easier to just accept that if you want independence then you have to vote Plaid.
The Informer states that-"I agree with Alwyn in that if the new nationalist movement offer something different, more to the right for example, then this could attract new nationalists who wouldn’t consider Plaid before because of their ever increasing leftist views. "
ReplyDeleteI wish though right-wing nationalists would put their money where mouths are and form a right-wing nationalist party. I don't worry about this splitting the vote because I think their offer to the people of Wales would be unconvincing, they would struggle to field many candidates or finance them, and would lose all of their deposits. There have already been splits from Plaid Cymru before and that's democracy, people can form whatever parties they like. Plaid doesn't and shouldn't have a monopoly on nationalism.
But going back to right-wing nationalism, I can't see what political programme they would offer that could win over substantial amounts of voters. Pay cuts? Fewer services? I strongly suspect that most of the centre-right or right-wing nationalism we hear on the internet is just one group of individuals who enjoy commenting on blogs etc, rather than any kind of movement out there.
Blog Menai had a post on 'conservative nationalists' recently that summed this up and I found quite convincing.
It's a shame in a way because there is a case that could be made- you could end the "Welsh deficit" and make Wales viable by slashing the state dramatically and scaling it back to the tune of billions. It does make a contribution to Welsh democracy, although I disagree with it. The only problem is, nobody would ever want that or vote for such a programme.
Lower spending and reduced services in rural Wales would not go down well with the so called "conservative" fro Cymraeg voters...unless the private sector in rural areas is capable of stepping forward and filling the gap?
ReplyDeleteAnd if we look at the evidence in Gwynedd the new so-called 'nationalist' party is merely a collection of anyone but Plaid supporters many with Unionist views. The common denominator being that they are anti Plaid. So the agenda of any new party could not be guaranteed.
ReplyDeleteLlais Gwynedd the name says that it is a regionalist party rather than a National one.
ReplyDeleteBut how dare you claim that all its members are Unionists! When you can prove that you have contributed as much to, or suffered as much for, the national cause as have the likes of Simon Glyn, Alwyn Gruffydd and Now Gwynnys, you might have a right to criticise!
A new party would have to appeal to the thickos ... you know the types who are anti-mass immigration, who think that global warming is just a con trick to tax the poor, who think there are far too many fat-arsed public servants pushing paper and that politicians should be putting the native population first not sending aid and armies to the third world. The sort of stupid folk who the intelligent Guardian reading, BBC loving, tweeting class despair of .......the thickos who are usually right about the major issues of the day.
ReplyDeleteWhy would a new party have to appeal to that constituency anon? I would have thought that that particular attitude was already well served by some of the current parties!
ReplyDeleteI think Anon 05:07's point is that a right-of-centre nationalist party wouldn't HAVE a constituency at all, unless it tried reaching out to those kind of people. I think it would be a massive flop. I think right-leaning Welsh nationalism is a tiny, fringe cause. But they have every right to contest elections and I would like to see it happen to see what the levels of support were like. I don't think they would take any more votes off Plaid than the Greens or Communists do. It would probably be worse than the Independent Wales Party.
ReplyDeleteI suppose you're only talking about a PNV (Basque Country) and CiU (Catalonia) equivalent really (on a broadly ideological basis). Right of centre economcially, socially and religiously speaking, strongly nationalist from a cultural and (perhaps) linguistic perspective and moderately or mildly nationalist from a constitutional perspective. I am sure there is a constituency out there in Wales for that party, currently spread thinly across all four parties. I can't see it ever emerging from the grass roots though, realisitcally only from an organised defection of grandees from exisiting party hierarchies who suddenly come together. Who's going to do that? What possible motive/incentive would there be?
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