12/10/2012

Let's suppose that my cynicism is wrong - What happens next?

Let's suppose that my cynicism about the reason why the first two Assembly Bills have been subjected to judicial review is wrong (as nationalist and socialist commentators alike suggest in response to yesterdays blog post).

Let's suppose that the fact that at least one and possibly two other Bills are in line for judicial review has nothing to do with the Assembly Government / the Labour Party deliberately picking a fight with Westminster, what happens next?

The Supreme Court will not make its decision on the validity of these contentious bills on the morality of the Assembly being able to pass them; they will just look at the dry bones of law and the law will unequivocally find against the Assembly.

If, after it finds against the Assembly, we all condemn the law for being an ass and we complain that such laws are morally indefensible even if legally sound, what happens next?

Will the Labour Party mount a vigorous campaign for a more robust devolution settlement? Will the Conservatives and the Lib Dems admit that there is a flaw in the Government of Wales Act and insist that it is rectified by their colleagues in Westminster? Will even Plaid say that the Campaign for Devo Max / Independence starts today?

Sorry! I'm still a cynic - the answer to all of those questions is No! No! No!

Creating Bills that will be challenged in law has everything to do with the right to moan it's not fair but absolutely nothing to do with creating a system that is fair!

What happens next? – The answer is nothing other than the traditional Labour Evil Tory hissy fit rant.

I think that my cynicism is well founded!

10 comments:

  1. right as usuall MoF.

    Shouldn't we in Wales have a mass pro-Assembly rally?

    It'll put all parties on the spot. What do they stand for?



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  2. Doesn't the Silk Commission in it's second part, which starts in November, allow for the case to be made for a Reserved powers models (and possibly Welsh legal jurisdiction)as is the case in Scotland and N. Ireland?
    Wouldn't these legal challenges be much, much more unlikely in such a model as the boundaries are much more clearly defined?

    DaiTwp

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  3. Absolutely anon 9:30, it would not remove all the rough edges, but the lace doily of permissions that the National Assembly has are a real barrier to sane law making.

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  4. Gwent won't join any pro-assembly rally. Many there were highly abusive at welsh language access and rights, and want the Westminster set up to remove the Assembly. Welsh language supporters were abused and called 'welshies' and 'Language fascists' with no right of bi-lingual access. I think e have a way to go, to change perceptions in Wales with an overwhelming anti-welsh bias in South wales. How do we get these people onside ?

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  5. A pro-Welsh lawmaking rally wouldn't be a bad idea.

    It could reclaim devolution from the lawyers and send a message that actual real people support Wales making its own laws.

    People from Gwent would join, in response to MM 08:49. Election and referendum results show no tangible suport in Gwent for abolishing the Assembly, and actually Welsh medium education is booming in Gwent.

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  6. Have you read the local Argus in Gwent ? they want 'welshies' and 'language fascists' out.... and bi-lingual bumpf and signage got rid, because it causes road accidents. (Their claims not mine !). EON is also blaming the bi-lingual access of the welsh language, for them raising gas and electricity prices in Wales. The people against the Assembly are those who didn't even bother to vote for or against, but, they ARE the majority still smarting because their apathy allowed the formation of the Assembly.. Now they want rid.

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  7. MM, the people in the Argus are a minority that shouts loudly. They're not an organised political movement and they've never showed up in the election or referendum results. Nobody really wants rid of the Assembly. I don't literally mean "nobody", but I mean in political terms, it might as well be nobody. So my original point stands. Gwent would be well represented in any pro-Assembly rally.

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  8. I'm pro-assembly (Despite its faults !), but the fact remains the welsh language area and access campaigns have not stirred the mostly anglo-saxon taffies in South Wales except in a highly negative way. Monmouthshire residents are always asking to be returned to English status ! Plaid has no basis in South Wales of real note, and the minute they start talking about welsh itself no-one wants to get engaged with them. They may not show up on surveys ,but the fact the vociferous few refuse to bother to even vote on hardly suggests they are in favour. Any time you talk about Welsh autonomy, you read the opposition to it all. I think they are irate their apathy allowed the Assembly, and more irate there is not much they can do about it now. We need Plaid to engage and answer that,they feel welsh speakers are side lining them and imposing as well a form of education nobody wants and promoting a language they feel is dead as well as costly. Obviously I DON'T agree with them, but concerned nobody is taking this on.

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  9. " Monmouthshire residents are always asking to be returned to English status !" No they're not. The English Democrats have manufactured this idea and now stand in Welsh elections, where they always finish way behind Plaid Cymru in Monmouthshire. So actually the party advocating an independent Wales has more support in Monmouthshire than those that want to vote to join in England.

    " Plaid has no basis in South Wales of real note, and the minute they start talking about welsh itself no-one wants to get engaged with them"

    Not really true. In parts of south Wales Plaid is non-existent, in other parts they're the main challenger to Labour.

    " Any time you talk about Welsh autonomy, you read the opposition to it all. I think they are irate their apathy allowed the Assembly, and more irate there is not much they can do about it now."

    You're only seeing the irate few, because you don't agree with them and it is riling you. Honestly, I remember it well, all those who oppose autonomy came out to vote in 97 to try and stop it, and also in 2011. I know many of them! None of them abstained. Actually there's been research into this and if the turnout had been higher in the 2011 referendum, the result would have been more strongly "Yes". This is research by Dr Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully.

    ",they feel welsh speakers are side lining them and imposing as well a form of education nobody wants and promoting a language they feel is dead as well as costly."

    Who? It's just a handful of people here and there. Demand for Welsh medium education is skyrocketing in Gwent. Remember for every reactionary that writes a letter to the paper there's a hundred or a thousand people who support Welsh but can't be bothered to write letters about it.

    MM, I understand what you are saying and your concerns, but you are falling for their propaganda! Nobody is asking to join England. Nobody is campaigning in any serious way against home rule or the language. It's little snippets in the paper letters columns and on websites. It's not any kind of groundswell of opinion, in Gwent, Monmouth or anywhere else.

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  10. I'm afraid Plaid is just viewed in South Wales a a minority party with a minority view, and doesn't engage at all with the welsh populations on the M4 corridor. They only have to start talking and the response is language bi-lingual enforcing and whatever nationalists even which all carry a derogatory intonation. Plaid feel their support IS with the welsh speaker and the welsh parliament, but hasn't sold that to most in South Wales who constitute the majority of voters. Plaid need the gumption to take the fight to South Wales voters. They need someone in tune with reality.... I vote plaid more in hope than expectation, they really need to address that.

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