A Poll and a Pinch of Salt

The results of the recent ITV YouGov poll were published on S4C's Y Byd ar Bedwar tonight. The opinion poll suggests that 67% of us will vote yes and 33% will vote no; this seems over optimistic to me; I would have expected the vote to be much, much closer.

Even odder is the poll's suggestion that turn out will be a whopping 56%!

I tend to agree with Jac of the North's assessment of the campaign so far:

"Rugby players say Yes', Business says Yes', 'Man at bus stop says "what referendum?"'

I haven't seen any enthusiasm for either side's argument, the vast majority of my friends and acquaintances either don't know or don't care about the issue.

OK YouGov have done a scientific poll, I have just heard what the people in the shop and the pub have said, but my expectation is that turnout will be about 30% and that the split will be about 51% 49%, but I wouldn't want to commit to which side will win which percentage.

I hope that YouGov is right and that I'm wrong but if I was in charge of either side I would neither rest on my laurels or throw in the towel based on what appears to me to be a rather iffy poll finding.

Has the Whisky in the Jar undermined Welsh Democracy?

True Wales' decision not to apply for official designation was not a surprise to me, it was widely mooted a fortnight or so before the closing date for applications to lead the campaigns.

I made my semi-jocular application to lead the No campaign because I knew, beforehand, that True Wales was seriously considering not making a bid.

Supporters of the Yes Campaign have been unjustly condemnatory of True Wales for not registering as an official No campaign.

I can appreciate the Yes frustration, but True Wales have not broken any rules or laws by not registering, so if democracy has been in anyway ill served by True Wales' decision not to register, the fault lies with the rules and laws, rather than a group which abided by those rules and laws!

Indeed if there is no official Yes campaign it won't actually be True Wales' fault, it will be mine, for not submitting a good enough bid to succeed as No lead.

So the Yes campaign may, actually, have been hindered by the fact that the only No bidder had miscounted his fingers when measuring the Whisky in the jar before submitting the bid! ---- (This is a Theory not an Admission; Possibly!)

Nevertheless an interesting way of judging a democratic process, one must admit!

A Yes bid was made and a No bid was made – how can it be right or democratic for a valid Yes bid to be rejected just because the No bid was not quite up to scratch? What is democratic about one campaign being dependant on the ability, efficiency and sobriety of its opponent's campaign?

Opposing The Elite in Welsh Politics

One of the things that really annoys me about the True Wales No campaign is their claim that those who are elected to serve the people of Wales by the people of Wales are some sort of élite.

I am a fairly common bloke, I was bought up on a Council House Estate, I still live in a Housing Association owned home. The highest "status" that I have ever achieved is a Charge Nurse in the healthcare sector. My father was a railway signalman pre Beeching and then became a building site Labourer and eventually a local authority grounds man. Not a very elite life, but yet I can guarantee that if I were to meet them on the street I could greet about a third of AMs on first name terms and they would greet me back by name.

I can greet them by name because our paths have crossed in such mundane environments as car boot sales, marts, chapels, non league footy games and supermarkets, rather than in some corridors of power.

I can't think of any AM who has had an elite education in one of the top public schools or is a former member of anything like the Bullingdon Club.

I believe that one AM has had an Oxbridge education and that there are two are millionaires in the Senedd, but even they are from mining stock!

Look at the party leaders.

In Wales:
Carwyn Jones – Working Class Parents, Comprehensive education, & Aber Uni, Jobbing Barister

Ieuan Wyn Jones – Father a Minister, grandfather a miner, Comprehensive education and Liverpool Polytech; country solicitor

Nick Bourn – State Grammar School – Aber and Cambridge Universities (a bit posh). Working life a collage teacher (not so posh). Family background never mentioned, (which suggests common as muck in Tory circles), but I understand that Nick is also from a mining background.

Kirsty Williams also with working class parents and a comprehensive education; a degree in American Studies – how élite - from Manchester University!

On the UK level:
David Cameron Public School, Oxbridge Multi Millionaire, privileged upbringing

Nick Clegg, Public school, Oxbridge, Multi Millionaire, privileged upbringing.

Ed Milliband, very rich son of an intellectual, state and Oxbridge educated, a member of a politically elite family, has only worked within professional politics.

Now, if True Wales is really opposed to power being given to the Elite shouldn't they be begging for lots more power to be moved from the posh, rich and truly elite sorts in Westminster down to the rather common earthy sort of lads and lasses who are elected to Cardiff Bay? - As my No campaign will be doing!

True Wales, Big Lies #2

This is a sort of addendum to my last post.

One of the things that the anti-devolution group True Wales states is one of its principals is that any application to draw down Legislative Competence Orders from the United Kingdom Government should reflect the wishes of the majority of the Welsh people.

As a democrat I tend to agree with this principal. But it is a principal that raises the age old question of how a democracy can reflect the view of the majority (without oppressing the right of the minority).

The standard practice in these Islands is by electing politicians to act on behalf of those who elect them. Not a perfect system, but one, as Churchill once said is, the worst form of government except for all the others that have been tried.

The democratically elected body in Wales, the body that best represents the wishes of the majority of Welsh people is the Assembly. So according to True Wales' own principals Westminster should NEVER oppose an LCO, because every request for competence reflects the wishes of the majority of those elected to represent the wishes of the people of Wales.

Under the current system the Secretary of State for Wales can block an LCO. Does the current Secretary of State reflect the views of the majority of Welsh voters? Ma by ma by not! However he is not elected to his position by the people of Wales. He was elected by fewer than one in sixty of the total Welsh electorate. (One in sixty more than his shadow, and probable successor, who has only been voted for by the people of Chesham and Amersham).

Under the current system the Welsh Affairs Select Committee can also block LCO's (as it has done and will surely do gain). But the Committee doesn't reflect the majority view of Welsh People, as True Wales wishes, it reflects the make up of the House of Commons, with the Labour Party as the majority and the Conservatives as the second largest party (including the member for The Wrekin to make up for the paucity of Welsh Conservative members). The Liberal democrats and Plaid Cymru only have token members. Plaid's token membership is based on its association with the SNP. If Plaid and the SNP didn't ally themselves to be a single parliamentary group, there would be no Plaid member on the Committee.

Even when Wales decided not to elect a single Tory MP in 1979 the Tories were still the second largest group on the Welsh Affairs Committee! Truly representative of Welsh views? I doubt it.

If True Wales want the Assembly to have draw down legislation that reflects the wishes of the majority of Welsh people they should give the Assembly every competence under the Government of Wales Act and support the YES vote campaign. If they oppose any competence being given to Wales they should say so and stop their lying and their posturing as the democratic voice of Wales that they, most certainly, are not.