A Poll and a Pinch of Salt

The results of the recent ITV YouGov poll were published on S4C's Y Byd ar Bedwar tonight. The opinion poll suggests that 67% of us will vote yes and 33% will vote no; this seems over optimistic to me; I would have expected the vote to be much, much closer.

Even odder is the poll's suggestion that turn out will be a whopping 56%!

I tend to agree with Jac of the North's assessment of the campaign so far:
"Rugby players say Yes', Business says Yes', 'Man at bus stop says "what referendum?"'

I haven't seen any enthusiasm for either side's argument, the vast majority of my friends and acquaintances either don't know or don't care about the issue.

OK YouGov have done a scientific poll, I have just heard what the people in the shop and the pub have said, but my expectation is that turnout will be about 30% and that the split will be about 51% 49%, but I wouldn't want to commit to which side will win which percentage.

I hope that YouGov is right and that I'm wrong but if I was in charge of either side I would neither rest on my laurels or throw in the towel based on what appears to me to be a rather iffy poll finding.


  1. Totally agree.


  2. The soundings I've taken over the last few days based on real votes cast suggest that the poll is going to be a good deal closer than HTV's estimate. In fact, I have to say there is no guarantee of a Yes victory.

  3. I have to say that I think your analysis is closer to the mark MOF, although I still think YES will win. The fact is that True Wales have been taking part in a completely different campaign to the YES camp: i.e attempting to turn this poll into a referendum on the Assembly's performance over the past 10 years or so.My fear is that this has resonated with a lot of people. The YES camp haven't been forceful enough in rebutting this perception. My guess? 57% YES- 43& NO

  4. Ladbrokes have lengthened the odds on a YES vote to 16/1, which, in a two horse race, is about as good as you can get!

    I agree it is going to be closer than predicted, but YES should still win comfortably, thanks to True Wales's total incompetence!

  5. It's not surprising that general awareness is low. Weren't the Electoral Commission supposed to be sending out a booklet or something? Maybe mine is in the post.

    My daughter for one won't be voting anyway as she registered for postal vote last year but hasn't heard anything despite reminders.