I have followed The Thoughts of Oscar Blog, for the best part of 7 years. I'll be honest; I have rarely agreed with Oscar, I have often thought that his posts are offensive, unfair and sometimes bitter. But that is a feature of democracy. People with whom I passionately disagree are entitled to express their opinions. And the disagreement is often what makes politics vibrant and fun. I would be a hypocrite to defend much of what Oscar has said but I do defend his right to say it.
Despite the fact that I would never vote for him, I have a fair regard for my Constituency MP Guto Bebb. He seems to be a good constituency MP, in the sense that if you complain to him about the drains, he'll do something about the drains – regardless of whether he sees a vote in it or not. I have had very many internet discussions with him and a couple of "live" ones; on each and every occasion he seems well able to defend himself and his point of view with erudition.
I am bitterly disappointed by Guto's decision to take legal action against the Thought's of Oscar Blog, which is ultimately an attempt to close the blog down, because Guto has never before shown himself to be averse to defending himself on the comments pages of blog posts.
The so called "libellous" statements in Oscar's Post An Open Letter to Guto Bebb are actually minutiae – the MP HAS received donations from Russian Oligarch Alexander Temerko that locals might find suspect, whatever the reasons behind the donations!
OK. I accept Guto's defence that the Oligarch didn't pay him for supporting Israel's attack on Gaza; but why was the donation made? In support of Welsh culture, language, agriculture, local entrepreneurship or other things that affect the constituency, or for reasons that are not constituency related? Your constituents should be told not sued Guto!
Our MP HAS appeared to support the Israeli government in its campaign in Gaza, images of which have sickened many of his constituents of all political persuasions. Tell us why you support Israel, Guto. Persuade us to see the righteousness of supporting Israel rather than suing us for having the temerity to disagree with you!
I don't know what sort of reading figures Oscar has. This blog has a couple of thousand on a very, very good day! I suspect Oscar has similar. Guto can respond (as he has done eloquently in the past) to all the readership of a blog in the comments section. He has a better chance of bending the ear of a journalist than Oscar or I have, he can speak in Parliament under privilege; so why does he need to sue a blogger and try to shut him down? There is clearly something in one of Oscar's posts that has touched a very raw nerve! Suing Oscar might shut the blog down – but it may also expose that nerve!
Callia Guto!
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Showing posts with label Guto Bebb. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guto Bebb. Show all posts
12/08/2014
09/06/2010
The Black Cat's first Parliamentary Purr
Congratulations to Guto Bebb MP on delivering his maiden speech to the House of Commons yesterday.
A transcription of his pearls of wisdom can be found here:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debate/?id=2010-06-08a.227.0
The tradition of the House is that maiden speeches are not controversial; I was pleased to hear Guto note the importance of the Welsh Language in this constituency and the value of teaching local and Welsh history in our schools.
A transcription of his pearls of wisdom can be found here:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debate/?id=2010-06-08a.227.0
The tradition of the House is that maiden speeches are not controversial; I was pleased to hear Guto note the importance of the Welsh Language in this constituency and the value of teaching local and Welsh history in our schools.
04/05/2010
A Nationalist in Ysbyty and a Quisling in Deganwy!
Why did Guto make a point of telling a voter in Ysbyty Ifan that his grandfather was a founding member of Plaid Cymru, but denied that his family had any Plaid connections to a voter in Deganwy?
Shame that Ysbyty and Deganwy voters are siblings, who compared notes and came to the conclusion that Guto is two faced - a nationalist in Ysbyty and a Quisling in Deganwy!
Shame that Ysbyty and Deganwy voters are siblings, who compared notes and came to the conclusion that Guto is two faced - a nationalist in Ysbyty and a Quisling in Deganwy!
30/04/2010
Poor Guto is a bit upset
The pressure of the election seems to be getting at poor Guto Bebb.
On Pawb a'i Farn (an S4C programme similar to Question Time) last week Guto made a fool of himself. In response to a question on the MPs expenses scandal, you know the expenses scandal which involved members of his own party claiming for cleaning their moats and building a duck house, he tried to make out that fellow panellist Elfyn Llwyd was part of the scandal for claiming the parliamentary subsistence allowance. Elfyn chose to ignore him, so Guto said the same thing again, Elfyn dismissed the comments for the rubbish that they were by retorting if you say so Guto.
Unaware of how foolish his performance made him look, Guto smugly claimed on his blog that he had thrown a nuclear bomb at Elfyn. I responded to his post by leaving a comment that his so called bomb had blown up in his own face. Guto decided not to publish the comment. This is not the first time that Guto has refused to publish critical comments on his blog or to engage in any form of debate with those who disagree with him.
Guto's reluctance to engage in any debate is a shame, he use to be a regular contributor to the Welsh discussion board Maes e, where his comments were often insightful and interesting even when one disagreed with him. It also negates the whole point of blogging if one doesn't allow others to comment, and only allowing positive comments is a form of lying because it gives the false impression that all agree with one's words of wisdom.
Because of this I accused Guto of cowardice on my Hen Rech Flin blog, Guto's petulant response to my accusation can be seen here. The response is full of lies and inaccuracies.
Despite knowing that I am not a member of Plaid Cymru or any other party, and that the views I express aren't any organisation's views just my own, Guto insists on referring to me as a Plaid blogger. Guto claims that I called him a shitty coward, which I did not, if he checked with Cysgair he would find that the Welsh Word Cachgi translates as coward, dastard, rotter. Guto also claims that my comments were nasty – they were not – telling somebody that they are mistaken is actually an act of friendship not of nastiness, it enables them to avoid making the same mistake again. Of course this isn't the first time that Guto has accused me of nastiness when I have tried to be helpful to him; I was also accused of nastiness when I informed him that his leaflets weren't getting through to my part of Glan Conwy a few months ago, something that I would have expected any candidate to want to know.
If Guto cannot abide any disagreement with his point of view or any critical comment, if he fears discussion and debate has he got what it takes to be an MP? If he gets so hot under the collar because of a bit of criticism perhaps he should give up campaigning for the sake of his health.
On Pawb a'i Farn (an S4C programme similar to Question Time) last week Guto made a fool of himself. In response to a question on the MPs expenses scandal, you know the expenses scandal which involved members of his own party claiming for cleaning their moats and building a duck house, he tried to make out that fellow panellist Elfyn Llwyd was part of the scandal for claiming the parliamentary subsistence allowance. Elfyn chose to ignore him, so Guto said the same thing again, Elfyn dismissed the comments for the rubbish that they were by retorting if you say so Guto.
Unaware of how foolish his performance made him look, Guto smugly claimed on his blog that he had thrown a nuclear bomb at Elfyn. I responded to his post by leaving a comment that his so called bomb had blown up in his own face. Guto decided not to publish the comment. This is not the first time that Guto has refused to publish critical comments on his blog or to engage in any form of debate with those who disagree with him.
Guto's reluctance to engage in any debate is a shame, he use to be a regular contributor to the Welsh discussion board Maes e, where his comments were often insightful and interesting even when one disagreed with him. It also negates the whole point of blogging if one doesn't allow others to comment, and only allowing positive comments is a form of lying because it gives the false impression that all agree with one's words of wisdom.
Because of this I accused Guto of cowardice on my Hen Rech Flin blog, Guto's petulant response to my accusation can be seen here. The response is full of lies and inaccuracies.
Despite knowing that I am not a member of Plaid Cymru or any other party, and that the views I express aren't any organisation's views just my own, Guto insists on referring to me as a Plaid blogger. Guto claims that I called him a shitty coward, which I did not, if he checked with Cysgair he would find that the Welsh Word Cachgi translates as coward, dastard, rotter. Guto also claims that my comments were nasty – they were not – telling somebody that they are mistaken is actually an act of friendship not of nastiness, it enables them to avoid making the same mistake again. Of course this isn't the first time that Guto has accused me of nastiness when I have tried to be helpful to him; I was also accused of nastiness when I informed him that his leaflets weren't getting through to my part of Glan Conwy a few months ago, something that I would have expected any candidate to want to know.
If Guto cannot abide any disagreement with his point of view or any critical comment, if he fears discussion and debate has he got what it takes to be an MP? If he gets so hot under the collar because of a bit of criticism perhaps he should give up campaigning for the sake of his health.
07/03/2010
A response to Guto
Guto Bebb said...
A rather odd posting Alwyn.
Three postings back your view was 'love him or loath him Guto Bebb always raises interesting points'. Now, a few days later, I have become a Cameroon through and through.
So when did my transformation occur? Or does it relate to the growing dismay in the Plaid camp at the collapse of their campaign in Aberconwy?
As I have said before Alwyn - you were much more interesting whne you were less partisan
Guto.
Guto, between Maes-e, Cai's blog, my blog and your own blog we have been engaged in debate for the past five years or so. Sometimes we agree and sometimes we disagree. If I didn't think that you had raised interesting points worthy of debate, quite frankly, I wouldn't have bothered.
I don't know where you get the idea from that I am more or less partisan now than I was in the past. As you know, from numerous exchanges, I am not a member of any political party.
I voted Conservative in 1992, mainly because Colin Shepherd the Conservative candidate in Hereford's Mam was a friend and neighbour, partially because Colin's opponent was Gwynoro (the man who beat Gwynfor in 1979) and because I was voting in England so had no Plaid candidate to support. However, with this one exception, I have always voted for the Plaid Candidate, when one has stood in my electoral division.
I have not been a member of Plaid Cymru for over 10 years, not since Dafydd Wigley said The party has never ever espoused independence. I am an unashamed Welsh Nationalist, I believe in the espousal of independence.
I am also critical of Plaid Cymru's support for socialism. Socialism is based on reliance on the state, the only state that Wales can rely on at the moment is the British state, so reliance on the British state through Socialism is incompatible with Welsh Nationalism.
Having said all that, the only Welsh nationalist party that I can vote for at the moment is Plaid Cymru. I wish that it wasn't. I would love to be a member of a Welsh (one nation) Conservative Party, but such a beast doesn't exist.
I have not changed, Guto, I stand where I stood 30 years ago.
But you have changed, and changed a lot recently.
You use to be a Nationalist, a stalwart of Plaid Cymru, but when you fell out with Plaid you fell out with Cymru too, and you have become more and more opposed to Wales since.
The truth is, Guto, that I have stood my ground as a right wing nationalist, whilst you are moving closer and closer to David Davies, Stephen Crabb and David Jones. If you are elected there is little doubt that you will be anything other than Tory lobby fodder. You'r recent form has suggested that you wont even be a Sir Wyn or a Geraint Morgan.
During the last week I heard you on Hacio, supporting, in a roundabout way, the True Wales lie that the GoW act referendum will be about independence.
On Radio Cymru on Friday you bigged up the Labour Party's campaign in Aberconwy, in order to keep to the British story that the 2010 election race is a Tory v Labour one, despite the fact that you have accepted, for the past two years, that the real battle in Aberconw is between you and Phil!
I am not a member of the Plad camp, but your increasing anti Welsh desperation suggests that it is not their campaign that is the one collapsing in Aberconwy, but it is your own and that you are going for ever inceasing desperate measures in order to shore it up, and betraying Wales and Aberconwy with every step.
In 2003 I spent some time in the polling booth considering whether to vote for you as a possible new voice that could become a bridge between conservative policy and nationalist sentiment. In the end I voted for the incumbent as the best bet. When the result came through my vote wouldn't have made a difference anyway. But I don't think that you are the bridge between nationalism and conservatism that you were 7 years ago, you are now just a dyed-in-the-wool Brit Tory.
Again It is you who has changed Guto, not me!
A rather odd posting Alwyn.
Three postings back your view was 'love him or loath him Guto Bebb always raises interesting points'. Now, a few days later, I have become a Cameroon through and through.
So when did my transformation occur? Or does it relate to the growing dismay in the Plaid camp at the collapse of their campaign in Aberconwy?
As I have said before Alwyn - you were much more interesting whne you were less partisan
Guto.
Guto, between Maes-e, Cai's blog, my blog and your own blog we have been engaged in debate for the past five years or so. Sometimes we agree and sometimes we disagree. If I didn't think that you had raised interesting points worthy of debate, quite frankly, I wouldn't have bothered.
I don't know where you get the idea from that I am more or less partisan now than I was in the past. As you know, from numerous exchanges, I am not a member of any political party.
I voted Conservative in 1992, mainly because Colin Shepherd the Conservative candidate in Hereford's Mam was a friend and neighbour, partially because Colin's opponent was Gwynoro (the man who beat Gwynfor in 1979) and because I was voting in England so had no Plaid candidate to support. However, with this one exception, I have always voted for the Plaid Candidate, when one has stood in my electoral division.
I have not been a member of Plaid Cymru for over 10 years, not since Dafydd Wigley said The party has never ever espoused independence. I am an unashamed Welsh Nationalist, I believe in the espousal of independence.
I am also critical of Plaid Cymru's support for socialism. Socialism is based on reliance on the state, the only state that Wales can rely on at the moment is the British state, so reliance on the British state through Socialism is incompatible with Welsh Nationalism.
Having said all that, the only Welsh nationalist party that I can vote for at the moment is Plaid Cymru. I wish that it wasn't. I would love to be a member of a Welsh (one nation) Conservative Party, but such a beast doesn't exist.
I have not changed, Guto, I stand where I stood 30 years ago.
But you have changed, and changed a lot recently.
You use to be a Nationalist, a stalwart of Plaid Cymru, but when you fell out with Plaid you fell out with Cymru too, and you have become more and more opposed to Wales since.
The truth is, Guto, that I have stood my ground as a right wing nationalist, whilst you are moving closer and closer to David Davies, Stephen Crabb and David Jones. If you are elected there is little doubt that you will be anything other than Tory lobby fodder. You'r recent form has suggested that you wont even be a Sir Wyn or a Geraint Morgan.
During the last week I heard you on Hacio, supporting, in a roundabout way, the True Wales lie that the GoW act referendum will be about independence.
On Radio Cymru on Friday you bigged up the Labour Party's campaign in Aberconwy, in order to keep to the British story that the 2010 election race is a Tory v Labour one, despite the fact that you have accepted, for the past two years, that the real battle in Aberconw is between you and Phil!
I am not a member of the Plad camp, but your increasing anti Welsh desperation suggests that it is not their campaign that is the one collapsing in Aberconwy, but it is your own and that you are going for ever inceasing desperate measures in order to shore it up, and betraying Wales and Aberconwy with every step.
In 2003 I spent some time in the polling booth considering whether to vote for you as a possible new voice that could become a bridge between conservative policy and nationalist sentiment. In the end I voted for the incumbent as the best bet. When the result came through my vote wouldn't have made a difference anyway. But I don't think that you are the bridge between nationalism and conservatism that you were 7 years ago, you are now just a dyed-in-the-wool Brit Tory.
Again It is you who has changed Guto, not me!
03/03/2010
A Voice for Aberconwy or a Cameron Whipping Boy?
The They Work for You website notes that Elfyn Llwyd Hardly ever rebeled against his party in this parliament. Not surprising really, as he is both the Leader and Chief Whip of a party of just three MPs.
But hold on Defii John, hardly ever is not quite the same as never, never ever. On occasions Elfyn has voted differently to his two colleagues because he has voted for what he believes is in the best interest of his constituents, despite the fact that Hywel and Adam, have disagreed with him.
Ieuan Wyn Jones is often criticised for his support for Wylfa B, despite the fact that the party that he leads is opposed to nuclear power.
There is something odd here!
In both Westminster and Cardiff Bay, the Leader of Plaid Cymru occasionally rebels against party policy and stands up for his constituents in opposition to party policy.
In other parties both Ieuan and Elfyn would be sidelined for not toeing the party line, even deselected, but in Plaid they are enabled to lead the party despite not agreeing with the party on every issue.
Despite the Leadership Debates that go with the lie that we are electing a Prime Minister, we will actually be electing Knights of the Shire in this years' Westminster Election – people who should be the hero for our communities' needs.
In my constituency I have to consider whether I want to elect a Lobby Fodder Candidate who will vote the way that his whips tell him to vote, or for a candidate who will support the best interest of the constituency first, even if or after s/he is elevated to important roles in the party's hierarchy.
I know that Phil Edwards, if elected, will put Aberconwy first and party allegiance second. Sadly I've seen Guto Bebb morph from right of centre nationalist into Pure Tory Lobby Fodder without an independent thought that isn't owned and copyrighted by the Tory Party.
I'm going to vote for a Free Voice for Aberconwy, not for a whipped voice for Cameron!
But hold on Defii John, hardly ever is not quite the same as never, never ever. On occasions Elfyn has voted differently to his two colleagues because he has voted for what he believes is in the best interest of his constituents, despite the fact that Hywel and Adam, have disagreed with him.
Ieuan Wyn Jones is often criticised for his support for Wylfa B, despite the fact that the party that he leads is opposed to nuclear power.
There is something odd here!
In both Westminster and Cardiff Bay, the Leader of Plaid Cymru occasionally rebels against party policy and stands up for his constituents in opposition to party policy.
In other parties both Ieuan and Elfyn would be sidelined for not toeing the party line, even deselected, but in Plaid they are enabled to lead the party despite not agreeing with the party on every issue.
Despite the Leadership Debates that go with the lie that we are electing a Prime Minister, we will actually be electing Knights of the Shire in this years' Westminster Election – people who should be the hero for our communities' needs.
In my constituency I have to consider whether I want to elect a Lobby Fodder Candidate who will vote the way that his whips tell him to vote, or for a candidate who will support the best interest of the constituency first, even if or after s/he is elevated to important roles in the party's hierarchy.
I know that Phil Edwards, if elected, will put Aberconwy first and party allegiance second. Sadly I've seen Guto Bebb morph from right of centre nationalist into Pure Tory Lobby Fodder without an independent thought that isn't owned and copyrighted by the Tory Party.
I'm going to vote for a Free Voice for Aberconwy, not for a whipped voice for Cameron!
26/02/2010
A Devoloution Precept?
Love him or loath him one can count on Guto Bebb to raise interesting points of view. Two of his latest posts on Tax and Borrowing Powers for Wales are a case in point (apparently a third is iminent). Agree or disagree with Guto, he always raises important issues worthy of debate.
The second in the series deals with weather a Devolved Wales could have tax varying powers, it is not surprising that Guto thinks not:
One of the difficulties people in the UK have with border problems is that having lived as an Island or collection of Islands, for so long we forget that these border problems are things that most countries have dealt with for a very long time. Having large populations living close to boarders with other countries is actually the norm. If Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal etc can overcome such difficulties then England, Wales and Scotland can too if they choose to go their separate ways.
But looking at the conundrum Guto raises from a Devolutionist view rather than a Nationalist one, I feel that there is a moral problem with having this level of government that has the power to spend money, but cannot be held to account for raising any of the money that it spends.
I love my free bus pass, I love the fact that I can use the swimming pool free of charge. You might argue that paying for these services means that less is spent on education, but the fact that I have these services means that I don't go to school so if I want to be selfish what care I. If providing the services meant an extra £X on my tax bill I might think differently.
The Boston Tea Party was about no taxation without representation – isn't representation without fiscal responsibility just as bad?
Even if all Guto's comments about the difficulties of differing tax systems between England and Wales are accepted, there is a way in which Wales could have fiscal responsibility.
On top of my Council Tax from Conwy Council, I have to pay a precept for the North Wales Police and a precept from my parish council.
Couldn't the Assembly also raise a precept?
Since the inception of Council Tax, Welsh councils have charged £200-£600 less than many English councils, doesn't this leave wiggle room for the Assembly to raise some of its own money through a devoloution precept?
A £100 band D Assembly precept would still make living in a band D house in Flintshire a lot cheaper than living in a band D house ascross the road in Cheshire, but would give, not tax raising powers, but tax raising responsibility to the Assembly.
The second in the series deals with weather a Devolved Wales could have tax varying powers, it is not surprising that Guto thinks not:
"Around 85% of the Welsh population live within 50 miles of the English border. This is crucial and makes a separate tax system in Wales a damaging prospect for all of us"
One of the difficulties people in the UK have with border problems is that having lived as an Island or collection of Islands, for so long we forget that these border problems are things that most countries have dealt with for a very long time. Having large populations living close to boarders with other countries is actually the norm. If Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal etc can overcome such difficulties then England, Wales and Scotland can too if they choose to go their separate ways.
But looking at the conundrum Guto raises from a Devolutionist view rather than a Nationalist one, I feel that there is a moral problem with having this level of government that has the power to spend money, but cannot be held to account for raising any of the money that it spends.
I love my free bus pass, I love the fact that I can use the swimming pool free of charge. You might argue that paying for these services means that less is spent on education, but the fact that I have these services means that I don't go to school so if I want to be selfish what care I. If providing the services meant an extra £X on my tax bill I might think differently.
The Boston Tea Party was about no taxation without representation – isn't representation without fiscal responsibility just as bad?
Even if all Guto's comments about the difficulties of differing tax systems between England and Wales are accepted, there is a way in which Wales could have fiscal responsibility.
On top of my Council Tax from Conwy Council, I have to pay a precept for the North Wales Police and a precept from my parish council.
Couldn't the Assembly also raise a precept?
Since the inception of Council Tax, Welsh councils have charged £200-£600 less than many English councils, doesn't this leave wiggle room for the Assembly to raise some of its own money through a devoloution precept?
A £100 band D Assembly precept would still make living in a band D house in Flintshire a lot cheaper than living in a band D house ascross the road in Cheshire, but would give, not tax raising powers, but tax raising responsibility to the Assembly.
15/07/2009
The Black Cat’s Blog
Browsing the web I have just found out that Guto Bebb, Tory PPC for Aberconwy, has been blogging for about a month now.
His pearls of wisdom can be found here
His pearls of wisdom can be found here
02/08/2008
Aberconwy Tories Knifing Guto in the Back?
My nearest neighbour in the blogosphere is Oscar, a Conservative supporting blogger, but not a party hack. When he thinks it is right to do so Oscar isn't averse to giving Tories who he doesn't think are up to scratch a kick up the rear.
The latest Tory to be awarded an Oscar is Aberconwy PPC Guto Bebb:
Personally I think that Oscars' post is a bit harsh. Guto's profile is very high in the Welsh language media. It is so high that one might even think that Guto is the only Welsh speaking Tory in the World.
The profile problem seems to be one that is of the party's making rather than the candidate's. When journalists approach the party for a quote or an interview they only suggest Guto when the journalist wants a response in the language of Heaven. Because Guto has had his tuppence worth of media attention in Welsh, he is never, ever considered for promotion of the party by speaking English.
Whilst canvasing in the 2003 Assembly election a former Conservative voter told me that she would never vote for Guto, because he is a Welsh Nationalist in Tory drag. A fair point.
To many in Aberconwy and other parts of Wales, the Conservative party is perceived to be the anti Welsh party. A party that is the opponent of all things Welsh, a perception that many members and supporters of the party adhere to.
I suspect that the reason why some Conservative supporters in Aberconwy are sticking the knife in and suggesting that Gutto should consider his position as the PPC, and perhaps move aside for a more pro active candidate, is because Guto's profile is just too Welsh for comfort in a basically anti-Welsh party.
The latest Tory to be awarded an Oscar is Aberconwy PPC Guto Bebb:
Where has Gutto Bebb been of late?
He has appeared looking at the rubbish some where in the junction, hardly Westminster stuff though is it?
If the Conservatives have any chance of capturing this seat, Gutto needs to get off his ****, and get about, get to know his patch and the people in the area.
It is getting to look more and more like a lost cause here in Conwy/ Aberconwy, which is a shame, this seat is theirs for the taking, but each day and week is lost as there appears to be no active interest and involvement in the area they wish to capture at the next election.
Personally I think that Oscars' post is a bit harsh. Guto's profile is very high in the Welsh language media. It is so high that one might even think that Guto is the only Welsh speaking Tory in the World.
The profile problem seems to be one that is of the party's making rather than the candidate's. When journalists approach the party for a quote or an interview they only suggest Guto when the journalist wants a response in the language of Heaven. Because Guto has had his tuppence worth of media attention in Welsh, he is never, ever considered for promotion of the party by speaking English.
Whilst canvasing in the 2003 Assembly election a former Conservative voter told me that she would never vote for Guto, because he is a Welsh Nationalist in Tory drag. A fair point.
To many in Aberconwy and other parts of Wales, the Conservative party is perceived to be the anti Welsh party. A party that is the opponent of all things Welsh, a perception that many members and supporters of the party adhere to.
I suspect that the reason why some Conservative supporters in Aberconwy are sticking the knife in and suggesting that Gutto should consider his position as the PPC, and perhaps move aside for a more pro active candidate, is because Guto's profile is just too Welsh for comfort in a basically anti-Welsh party.
17/08/2007
Congratulations Guto Bebb
Congratulations to Guto Bebb on being selected as the Conservative candidate for Aberconwy in the coming General Election. If he is elected there is no doubt that he will be a good constituency MP and a credit to Westminster.
Aberconwy is a new seat that is currently represented by Beti Williams (Labour) and Elfyn Llwyd (Plaid Cymru). Neither incumbent intends to defend the seat*. According to UK Polling Report the notional result in 2005 was:
Labour: 9119 (31.5%)
Conservative 8875 (30.6%)
Liberal Democrats: 5733 (19.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 4186 (14.4%)
Others: 1080 (3.7%)
Labour majority over Cons: 243 (0.8%)
This makes the seat fifth on the Conservatives list of target seats.
One must take these notional results with a healthy pinch of scepticism though. Guto, or any other candidate would be foolish to give them too much credibility.
The new boundaries were used in May's Assembly elections. This was the result:
Gareth Jones PC 7,983 (38.6%)
Dylan Jones-Evans Con 6,290 (30.4%)
Denise Idris Jones Lab 4,508 (21.8%)
Euron Hughes Lib Dem 1,918 (9.3%)
*Correction
I had thought that Beti Williams intended to stand in Arfon, however Hafod and Martin Eaglestone both tell me that she is in fact going to stand in Aberconwy.
Aberconwy is a new seat that is currently represented by Beti Williams (Labour) and Elfyn Llwyd (Plaid Cymru). Neither incumbent intends to defend the seat*. According to UK Polling Report the notional result in 2005 was:
Labour: 9119 (31.5%)
Conservative 8875 (30.6%)
Liberal Democrats: 5733 (19.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 4186 (14.4%)
Others: 1080 (3.7%)
Labour majority over Cons: 243 (0.8%)
This makes the seat fifth on the Conservatives list of target seats.
One must take these notional results with a healthy pinch of scepticism though. Guto, or any other candidate would be foolish to give them too much credibility.
The new boundaries were used in May's Assembly elections. This was the result:
Gareth Jones PC 7,983 (38.6%)
Dylan Jones-Evans Con 6,290 (30.4%)
Denise Idris Jones Lab 4,508 (21.8%)
Euron Hughes Lib Dem 1,918 (9.3%)
*Correction
I had thought that Beti Williams intended to stand in Arfon, however Hafod and Martin Eaglestone both tell me that she is in fact going to stand in Aberconwy.
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