The Answer to the Llywydd Conundrum - MoF for PO !

On both Peter Black's and The National Left's blogs an anonymous commentator has resolved the Llywydd Conundrum:

Miserable old fart talking about Peter Black being presiding officer, but MOF will be in opposition as well so why does not he be pres officer?

I think that Anonymous' idea is brilliant – I would love to do the job and I'm sure that I would be the best Llywydd ever; but there is one little problem. Under present arrangements the Llywydd has to be an AM, this unfortunate little detail rules me out. Damn it!

Glyn Beddau has an interesting response to the nonny's comment:

But the idea of you becoming Llywydd is not without merit. It may be a good idea that two Presiding officers are appointed via a ballot of AMs from respected members of the Public.. They would not be allowed to vote but would have authority in the chamber. It would mean that the elected members can get on serving their constituents who voted for the Party rather than them anyway.

I'm not sure if Glyn's comment is tongue in cheek or not, but it does have some merit.

Since the Assembly's creation the people of Meirionnydd have voted Plaid Cymru with a fair amount of consistency, but they have not had a Plaid AM, they have had an independent / neutral AM – which is not what they voted for. The constituents have not had an AM who can stand up in the Senedd to plead their cause or to vote on the issues that are important to them - and that's not fair!

OK the Westminster parliament has selected one of its own to be speaker for the past 700 years – but does Wales have to slavishly follow that model?

There must be a better way of selecting a Llywydd than disenfranchising the electorate of a working AM!

(Any AM's who agree with anon that I would be a good external appointment are welcome to beg me to take up the post via the e-mail link on the top left of the blog. I expect a minimum of 40 by this time tommorrow!)

Is 50/50 best of both for Plaid?

Because of the 50/50 split between Labour and the others, my favoured coalition - that of a rainbow is now a no brainer. A minority Labour Government might (just) work, a minority rainbow coalition would be an impossibility.

Even if it was a possibility, I'm not sure that I would still back any form of coalition in either a First Past the Post or FPTP plus election, the risks of coalition are too high without the protection of a proper (STV type) proportional vote system.

Plaid Cymru's mantra since 2007 has been that the party has given added value to the Labour led government and stifled some of its excesses; the Lib Dems have made a similar claim about their influence on the Tories in Westminster since 2010. Both narratives are probably true; but neither party has benefited from it.

The problem seems to be that if you like what the Labour / Conservative led coalition governments have done you vote Labour / Tory rather than Plaid / LD. If you don't like what the Labour / Conservative led coalition governments have done you vote against their coalition partners who have enabled them to govern – a lose/lose situation.

There have been rumours that the Lib Dems are considering an agreement with Labour in the Assembly. That would be suicidally stupid! Giving the benefit of their input to two different parties and receiving the blame for the failures of both.

In a funny sort of way Plaid might be in the best possible position, if it resists both a Coalition or a Supply & Confidence agreement with Labour.

There are things that a Welsh Labour Government will want to do that the ConDem Westminster Government won't want them to do. Plaid is in a position to trade its support by squeezing a bit of blood from both sides!

The Llywydd Conundrum

We know who is going to be First Minister in the Assembly without any doubt.

The big question is who is going to be Presiding Officer?

With Plaid having lost 4 seats in the Assembly Election the party, clearly, can't afford to lose one of its biggest beasts, Dafydd Elis Thomas, by him being tied up in the President's chair. Unless Labour goes into One Wales #2, which is looking unpalatable to both parties at the moment.

Labour can't afford to put up a candidate for Llywydd, if it did it would lose its 50%.

I doubt if any Conservative would want the job, given the fact that they are now the official opposition and need all their amo to prove themselves as an "effective" opposition.

With 3 newbies out of 5 AM's and Kirsty out of the loop as party leader the only candidate the Lib Dems have is Peter Black. Having scraped in on just over 50 votes, and having to give up his high profile blog for the sake of neutrality, would Peter take up the chalice?

I suspect that what will happen is that Labour will attempt to go for One Wales #2 in order to keep Dafydd in the chair.

If Plaid swallows that bait, it needs it's bumps feeling!

Has AV made many vote 1 2 3 by mistake?

I have just come back from the pub, having popped in for a couple after the polling booths had closed. There were only about 20 locals in and only 8 of them had voted, about 40%, which is about right.

The worrying thing, however was of the 8 who voted 4 had voted 1 2 3, rather than X. having been confused by the AV publicity. Ok 8 voters in my local aren't a scientific sample, but it does suggest that one of the more interesting things to look out for as the results come in is the number of votes spoiled by virtue of voting for more than one candidate.

A Boring Prediction for a Boring Election

My prediction for Friday's result in the Assembly election is one of no change (ok Blaenau Gwent will turn real Labour rather than pretendy Labour). I doubt if any constituency seat will change hands.

I can't see any Green, UKIP or BNP candidate making the breakthrough on the lists.

Tinkering at the edges might result in some list candidates swapping places from second to third etc, but I don't think that the actual numbers will change.

A boring prediction for what has been the most boring election I've known in the 35 years in which I have followed elections.

Why rumours are less reliable than Welsh opinion polls

I don't have a lot of faith in Welsh opinion polls; they are conducted on a UK, even worse an USA model. A model that can predict the outcome of a 650 seat legislature cannot, without immense refinement, predict a 60 seat legislature with any accuracy. To make things worse the Welsh polls use an UK weighting method to predict their seat distribution. Wales is not a mini UK.

The ITV/YouGov polls are a welcome addition to the Welsh political scene; I hope that they continue; but all they are showing at the moment is trends – they cannot make seat predictions in their present form.

If we can't rely on the polls, then the next best thing that we have is the ear on the ground, the rumours from the constituencies, the party's canvassing results that we are fed that say there may be a shock in constituency X. But these are even less reliable than the polls.

My first experience of political campaigning was in the February 1974 election. I had agreed to be part of the Liberal Party's canvassing team in Merionethshire. I put a poster supporting my candidate in my bedroom window; but when Dad came home he ordered me to take it down in case somebody put a brick through the window or in case he was sacked from his job by his employer of a different political persuasion!

I hadn't realised that democratic differences could cause such animosity, so on my first canvassing outing I wore brown trousers because I was really frightened of being physically and verbally abused by those who were going to vote against my man. I was pleasantly surprised. At every door I knocked on I was received with courtesy, nobody assaulted me, nobody set the dogs on me, everybody said they would consider voting for my candidate. I honestly thought that we would win handsomely from my canvass experience – we came a miserable fourth!

And another thing, when parties are quietly confident of winning a seat or retaining a marginal, they tend to keep that confidence quiet; rather than alerting the media (and their challengers) of their confidence. When parties need to big up their chances in a particular constituency, it's because their returns show that they are not quite there yet so they need spin in order to give an impression of winning here.

We can't trust polls, we can't trust the rumour. The only thing that we can trust is that, with just four days to go, there are still votes to win and opinions to change – so put your blood and guts into supporting your candidates over these last few essential days!

This Asda be the funniest campaign report this year!

I can't stop laughing at this hilarious report from STV News about Iain Gray popping into an Asda store where Alex Salmond was doing a meet and greet.

Iain Gray and Alex Salmond have accused each other of hiding and running away during a visit to an Ardrossan supermarket.

Scottish Labour claimed that Mr Salmond "hid" from Iain Gray when the two leaders found themselves in the same supermarket on Tuesday night.
However, the SNP said that Labour’s claims were "desperate" and that the situation unfolded very differently. An SNP candidate said that Mr Gray "turned tail" rather than face the First Minister.

Classic!

Not Covered?

From the Conservative Party Manifesto's Welsh Language Policy:

(We will) Create a Bilingual Nation – Introduce a Charter-Mark for businesses which will recognise Welsh language services. The scheme will be voluntary but will offer incentives for bilingual signage and Welsh language training for front-line staff.

As kitchen staff aren't front line and Carreg Môn doesn't appear to be a willing volunteer, what suport do the Tories offer these Welsh speaking workers?

Latest poster from United and Welsh

Click image to enlarge

I have blocked out the phone numbers on the poster, apparently they were genuine.

Send a dog turd through the letter box – Vote Labour!

I must congratulate Plaid and Uncut for his incisive description of Labour's campaign to use the Assembly election as a midterm British protest vote

Labour's headline so far has been Vote Labour to send a Message to David Cameron and Nick Clegg. Essentially the political equivalent of putting a dog turd through their letterbox or ordering a pizza to be delivered to their house. Messaged delivered, now what?

A vote in the Assembly election based on Westminster issues is a wasted vote, no matter who you vote for. You might hate what the Conservatives are going to do with the Health Service in England, but that isn't a reason for ignoring what might be different policies that Conservative Assembly Candidates have for Wales – those differences need to be explored before deciding whether or not to vote Conservative in the Assembly Election.

How this election is decided must be decided on the message that each and every candidate from all parties have for the people of Wales over the next five years.

Plaid Cymru, The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are saying vote for us because this is what we are offering Wales!

Labour's message seems to be Sod Wales; the Assembly Vote has no Importance in its own right, it's just a way of protesting. Labour has form on this attitude.

However you decide to vote, please vote positively for what is best for Wales and vote for the party that can best support your aspirations in the Assembly - not in Westminster!

Don't waste your vote on a, Westminster annoying, game of shitty stick!

Plaid's Labour attack site

There is no secret that I have a particular dislike for the Labour party, a party that has promised so much to Wales over the past hundred years but delivered so little and that I was bitterly disappointed that after a campaign in the last Assembly elections that promised to kick Labour into touch that Plaid decided to prop Labour up in government.



I suspect that propping up Labour is what Plaid will do again, however I was pleased to find that the party has a new web presence dedicated to attacking Labour:
http://www.wherewaslabour.plaidcymru.org/

Well worth a read, but two technical problems that Plaid might like to consider.

1]The RSS feed isn't detected by Blogger so I can't put links to new attacks in my My Blog List feature to the left of this page.

2] When a website has a prominent Copyright Notice on every page it suggests that the site owners will come down like a ton of bricks on anybody who dares to copy the site's pages. I would have thought that viral copying of things like how Labour crapped on the miners would better serve the party.


Hat tip: Grangetown Jack

An interesting Conundrum for Labour in the North.

With the polls looking up for Labour, the chances of a Labour list seat in North Wales is zilch, nada, F*** all!

The only way that Labour can gain a list seat in the North is if the North West constituency vote collapses under a Tory landslide - that is not going to happen!.

Any Labour list vote is going to be a wasted vote, so how should Labour supporters in the north use their list vote?

I suspect that the vast majority will waste their second vote on Labour, without realising that they could actually make a difference if they think about their second vote.

Those who like the coalition between Plaid and Labour could make a difference by giving Plaid their second vote in order to ensure a bigger Plaid (and smaller Tory /Lib Dem) representation.

On the other hand Labour supporters who hate the Assembly might consider lending their second vote to anti Assembly UKIP!

Either way it makes more sense than wasting the list vote on Labour when the maths says that Labour can never, ever gain a list seat in the Northern region!

If I supported either UKIP or Plaid I would be making hay on the fact that a second vote for Labour is a wasted voet in all but the Mid Wales Region. Neither appears to be doing so - silly buggers!

50,000 New Welsh Jobs. What a Stupid Idea!

In a speech in Cardiff yesterday Ieuan Wyn Jones outlined plans to raise money that could be used to fund 50,000 new jobs in Wales over the next 4 years. Given the high levels of unemployment in Wales and the need to reinvigorate the Welsh economy, one would have thought that such a scheme would be welcomed by all. The only grounds that I can think of for opposing plans for such a massive and much needed jobs boost would be if opponents could come up with a better scheme for creating even more jobs.

Unfortunately all the other three parties' responses to the plans were of the typically childish, name calling, negative type which we have come to expect from those quarters.

Liberal Democrat AM Jenny Randerson said: This is a typical Plaid Cymru pie in the sky policy.

Nick Bourn, the Leader of the Conservatives thinks that the plan is irrelevant.

And Labour's Owen Smith MP dismisses the plan with the rather odd comment if a deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

All of which sound to me like dismissing a policy just because another party thought of it first; dismissing the possibility of job creation and economic revival for petty party reasons.

If 50,000 new jobs and economic revival are seen as pie in the sky; irrelevant or too good to be true by the other parties – why on earth should anybody vote for them?

I would have hoped that Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives and the Welsh Liberal Democrats had greater aspirations for Wales than to dismiss plans to increase employment and kick start our economy in negative sound bites!


Wales deserves better.

Deus Samolidi ex Machina?

This is the first PPB offered by the SNP for the May 5th elections:




I am not impresed, it reminds me of the Deus ex Machina of ancient Greek and Latin drama, a good story with a bad ending, where a god in the machine comes down to say it all ended happily ever after! Ych a fi. I hope that the SNP has better to offer than Salmond as the god in the Machine of Scots politics!

Having said that, where are the Welsh PPB's from all parties?

Time is short. There are votes to be won. But with only a few weeks to go the election campaign seems to be a non starter at the moment.

Time to pull the finger out?