The Rhodri Conundrum

A number of commentators on the Radio and TV today have been making the point that Rhodri Morgan as an individual has a high popularity rating in Wales, but that the party that he leads has become noticeably less popular during his time at the helm. A number of reasons have been given for this – his man of the people persona; Rhodri not sorting out institutional problems in the Welsh Labour party etc.

I would suspect that the real reason is in the way that Assembly issues are always reported. The Assembly is almost invariably seen as a corporate institution rather than a political institution. Here is an example from the today's Daily Post:

"THE Labour government was accused of hypocrisy last night after announcing it was scrapping hospital car parking charges despite criticising the Welsh Assembly when it axed fees."

Throughout the article there is no mention that the decision to scrap parking fees was proposed by the Labour/Plaid government in Cardiff, it is always described as a decision made by the Assembly or by Wales.

The same has been true of almost any decision, good or bad, made since devolution. They have all been Assembly decisions never Welsh Labour Government decisions in the way that Westminster measures have been Labour Government measures. The problem that this has caused Labour is that Rhodri's popularity has been matched by the Assembly becoming more popular, rather than by Labour becoming more popular. Labour in Wales has been blamed for Westminster Labour's failings but has failed to gain from Rhodri's "clear red water" Welsh Labour policies.

This isn't just a problem for Labour however; it is a problem for all the parties.

When the Tories suggested scrapping free prescriptions recently they were seen as opposing the Assembly rather than opposing a Labour policy. When the Labour/Plaid government failed to help secure the future of Dolgarog Aluminium works in the Conwy valley last year attacks on the parties of government by the parties of opposition fell on deaf ears – the locals blamed the Assembly, and they wanted the Assembly scrapped not a change of Assembly Government!

Until we see an end to reporting of the Assembly as a corporate body, rather than as an institution that is as party political as the House of Commons, proper political debate in Wales will be stifled to the detriment of all of the parties involved in the Assembly.

Boring Welsh politics

Rhodri Morgan once said that the politics of Welsh was Boring, Boring Boring, and that the Assembly of which he is First Minister is also boring.

David Cameron for the Tories said on his visit to Barry that Welsh politics was boring.

Welsh Liberal Democrat MP Lembit Öpik is so bored with his job representing his constituents that he tries to spice up his life with even more celebrity appearances.

Is there a party that isn't bored with Welsh politics?

Possibly

But as the voice over on the Weakest Link often asks will the votes reflect the reality?

Probably not! And Plaid members and supporters should be asking themselves why this should be so?

There was a time when Plaid could command the headlines by shouting for Wales, despite its poor election results. Think of Penyberth, Tyweryn, Gwynfor's death threat. Plaid punched a thousand times above its weight and demanded attention in those days.

With every other Party being bored by Wales why isn't Plaid shouting above it weight NOW? Is the leadership of Plaid also bored with Welsh Politics?

Tell me it aint so Jo Ieu! Tell me it aint so!

Rhodri is, probably, right.

Still on the subject of President Obama.

It's not often that I disagree with Damon Lord. It's not often that I agree with Rhodri Morgan either, but I think that Damon's condemnation of Mr Morgan as an ignorant, racist twat is unwarranted.

Rhodri has many failings, but being an ignorant, racist twat isn't one of them. I have known Rhodri for many years. I knew him before he ever became an elected politician and I know that his first hand experience of segregation in the USA, when he was a student there in the 1960's, has had a profound and influencing affect on him and his world view. Rhodri is not a racist and has never, ever, supported any racist view. To claim otherwise is very disingenuous!

As far as Rhodri's comments are concerned I tend to agree with him.

The first point to make is that Barack Obama is the Head of State of the USA, the equal to Her Majesty the Queen in the UK. If the monarchy survives, I can't see an heir apparent marrying a black person or a person of mixed race for at least another four generations. If the UK survives me, I will never see a black head of state. If the UK and its monarchy survive my great grandchildren the likelihood of them seeing a person of colour as head of state is minimal.

Electing a black Prime Minister is a lot more complex than electing a black president.

Four years ago Barack Obama was a newly elected junior senator. Regardless of age, gender, sexual preference or race, no newly elected British MP can become PM in 4 years, rarely is a PM selected before he or she has had 16 years of service as an MP under the belt (I know there have been odd exception). I don't see, at the moment, a "probable" Black or Asian PM amongst those in the Commons now, so it's down to the next tranch of MP's.

If he made a claim, Gordon Brown would be entitled to Disability Living Allowance, and could be noted as our first registered Disabled PM. Having a registered disabled person as Prime Minister would be such a boon and encouragement to the many young people who live with a disability and feel hindered. But Mr Brown chooses to hide his affliction rather than registering it - why? Because he is embarrassed by his disability and he doesn't think that Britain is ready to accept a disabled PM! - Prat!

I honestly don't think that a Black or Asian MP has any chance of being Prime Minister before 2025. If we have our first Labour female PM or the first openly Gay PM before then the black lad's chance will be indefinitely postponed! I can't see it happening in any legislature in these islands in the next 50 years.

I hope that I am wrong - but I doubt it!

Same old Labour

I have been going through a backlog of blogs and news stories that I have missed during the past week or so. The big story of the week seems to have been the publication of the IWA's new book Politics in 21st Century Wales, and especially Rhodri Morgan's contribution to it.

Many have commented on Rhodri's belief that the Labour party is perceived to be anti-Welsh by those of us living in the west. Personally I think that Rhodri's views are dated. What he says would certainly have been true 25-35 years ago, but I don't hear the same animosity to the Labour party in these parts as I heard in the days of George Thomas et all in the 70's. In general the attitudes towards Wales and its language expressed by the likes of Ian Lucas, Don Touhig and Chris Bryant are seen as oddities within the Labour Party these days rather than the mainstream view.

What struck me as most interesting in Rhodri's comments was his attitude towards Proportional Representation. Peter Black and Betsan Powys both touched on this subject, but neither of them noted the audacity of the First Minister's suggestion.

What Rhodri wants is PR in areas where Labour is under represented - like the West, but for First Past the Post to remain in those areas, such as the Valleys, where Labour thinks that it can get a majority of seats through the current system. He only supports PR in those areas where it will benefit Labour but is dead against it in those areas where it will harm Labour.

Rhodri's view on PR is so typical of the arrogant divine right to rule attitude of Welsh Labour that it is almost incredible. I suspect that it is this anti democratic streak in the Labour party that is the cause of its recent disappointments in Welsh politics, and that Rhodri's belief in PR for Labour but not for others will add to the party's decline throughout the country.

It's No Laughing Matter!

I had expected, Betsan, Vaughan, Peter , Bethan or Leighton to pick up on this one, but as they haven't I shall tell the story :-)

During Questions to the First Minister this afternoon, Eleanor Burnham started her question to Rhodri with a complaint about the dastardly way in which she was treated by Carwyn Jones last week.

Carwyn had made a joke that Eleanor didn't think was very funny, about never wishing to travel with Eleanor given the misfortunes that appear to beset all of her journeys. Full details here, HT David Cornock.

As Eleanor told the First Minister travel in Wales is no laughing matter.

Hear, hear!!!

Unfortunately Eleanor ended her question by making a Freudian slip. Rather than telling the FM its time you got your act together she said its time you got your arse together.

Result - rather than just Carwyn laughing at her - the whole chamber was bent double.

Da Iawn Eli! :~)

Rhodri's Freebies

The last of Dr Richard Wyn Jones (Dicw)'s programmes on Devolution was shown on S4C last night. In the programme Dr Jones looked at some of the successes and failures of Devolution over the past 8 to 10 years.

I agreed with many of Dicw's comments. He said that the Assembly has had more successes than failures in most of its subject areas: health, education, transport, economic regeneration etc., quite right. But I must disagree with him when he claims that it is these successes that have made the idea of an Assembly more popular now than it was 10 years ago.

I went to my boys' school open day yesterday. Things in schools have changed a lot since I was a child in the Heath / Wilson era. The Assembly may have caused many of those changes, but none of the changes that I saw jumped out and bit me as Assembly driven changes.

I was poorly under the doctor when John Redwood was Secretary of State for Wales. I've been poorly under the doctor since the Assembly started too! Things have changed, but to me those changes have been at the doctor's surgery and in the hospital, not in Cardiff Bay.

The Assembly's economic policies have transform employment opportunities in Wales, but I doubt that any unemployed worker who gets a job will offer a big thank you to the Assembly, because s/he realises that it's the Assembly's economic competence that made that job available!

The thing that has put the Assembly on the map, and made it practically relevant to the people of Wales is Rhodri's Freebies.

Of course, from a moral point of view, a super rich pensioner shouldn't have a free bus pass. The children of millionaires shouldn't have free swimming sessions. Billionaires shouldn't have free prescriptions and Trillionaires shouldn't go into our museums without paying a cent. But it is these freebies that have made the Assembly immediately relevant to the people of Wales.

It’s the little freebies rather than the huge changes in health, transport, the economy etc that have made the big difference in attitude to the Assembly.

When Nain (Grandma) visits, because she can - on her free bus pass - that's when my family knows that the Assembly has made a difference!

I can think of a million and one reasons for opposing all of Rhodri's Freebies, but there is little doubt that it is they, more than anything else, that has made devolution relevant to most people in Wales.

Shame that an academic of Dicw's ability failed to recognise this fact in his analysis.

Not Red and Yellow again, surely?

Both of the BBC in Wales blogging political correspondents have dropped the same very subtle hint in the last hour or so, that a Labour - Liberal Democrat coalition might be back on the table.

Betsan Powys in a post that deals with Labour MPs reaction to yesterday's meeting with Rhodri Morgan and football adds :

A ring-around of constituency Chairs today (and more on that to come) suggests so far that the majority could just about stomach the inedible deal if they had to ... unless the unpalatable scrapes itself from the floor and puts itself back on the menu of course. Surely one course too many even to contemplate. Surely?

Her colleague Vaughan Roderick makes a similar hint in a post about the future prospects of Mike German:

(Translated) There would be little sympathy from the other parties who blame the Liberal Democrats for making a mess of the process of forming a government but is there anything that the party itself could do to avoid becoming a peripheral opposition for another four years?
It isn't possible. No. I refuse even to contemplate it. It could never happen.
But what if Mike lifted the phone and called Rhodri?

Very subtle hints, indeed. If only one of these journalists had dropped the hint I would have said that it was just a bit of teasing, but for both to drop the same hint within minutes of each other, makes me wonder if they have actually heard rumors that they are treating with caution at the moment.

I am not the only one to have picked up on the BBC's hints Ceredig seems to have drawn a similar conclusion

Numpti Morgan

During the last few weeks I have been enjoying the election coverage on the on-line editions of the Scottish papers. Despite very valid comments made by Welsh political observers that Scotland has an advantage over Wales in having its own press, I have been surprised by how unionist biased the Scottish press appears to be.

One of the things that I like about The Scotsman and The Herald is the way that readers can post comments on line in response to any article. The Nationalists are winning the comments war on both paper's sites.

A word that is used often in the comments, mainly to ridicule members of the Labour party, is the word Numpty - such a good word! Today's Observer comments on the word Numpty:

Numpty, according to a survey, is Scotland's favourite word, a great term to describe someone who is an idiot. The Labour high command are behaving like a bunch of numpties as they desperately try to stop the Scottish National party.

Next Tuesday the BBC's Welsh political pundit Vaughan Roderick is to start a Welsh Language political Blogg to rival / compliment his colleague Betsan Powys' offering and that of his anonymous BBC colleague Arsembly. Vaughan has stated quite clearly on the discussion board Maes-E that anybody who uses personal insults will not be mentioned on his forthcoming Blogg. In fear of being blacklisted by Vaughan I have decided not to suggest on this blogg that Numpty would be a good word to use in relation to our beloved First Minister Numpti Morgan.

Fersiwn Cymraeg:Hen Rech Flin: Numpti Morgan

Selling the Goods

For all his faults one has to admit that Rhodri Morgan is always an entertaining speaker. I have heard Ieuan Wyn, Nick Bourne and Mike German speak recently; all three are bloody boring in their delivery.

Nick Bourne's speech to the Conservative Conference last weekend was a perfect example of a man who had something worth saying, but who didn't have they ability to say it in a way that was worth listening to.

Good products are only half the marketing battle; good salesmen are the other half. The three opposition parties have the goods, but they definitely don't have the salesmen

Cymraeg Hen Rech Flin: Gwerthu'r Nwyddau