According to a massive opinion poll of nearly 35,000 people conducted by Politics Home in 238 marginal seats across the UK including a number in Wales, the Conservative Party is set to become the largest Party in Wales in Westminster representation.
The poll reckons that the Tories will have 18 seats:
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Brecon and Radnorshire
Alyn and Deeside,
Cardiff South and Penarth
Plaid Cymru will have five (re-gaining Anglesey and Cardigan - but not advancing into new territory)
Carmarthen East & Deinefwr
The Liberal Democrats will be reduced to two
Peoples Voice will hold on to Blaenau Gwent
Leaving Labour with just 14 seats!
I can't see it happening myself.
I suspect that half of the predicted "gains" will be near misses for the Tories, as supporters of the three non Tory parties shift allegiance to the best placed non Tory candidate (probably Labour)
I reckon that Plaid can gain Aberconwy and Llanelli, giving them seven, with a bit of hard work and a lot of bottle Caerffili and Cwm Cynon could be in Plaid's grasp - but highly unlikely.
The weird thing is that listening to people on the street, I get the feeling that Labour is losing support because of its failure to address issues of social democracy and the left:
High energy costs for the old and the poor, the 10p tax rate for poorer workers, a lack of respect for civil liberties, not saving public services such as the Post office, allowing free markets to cripple the economy etc.
If Labour was more left wing and more social democratic it would be more popular!
In these circumstances the Liberal Democrats and Plaid should be making hay. Polls should be suggesting that both parties would be looking at double figure gains in Wales with a Tory wipe out.
The fact that the people of Wales see the Tory's as their saviour in the face of Labour failure is an indictment of both Plaid and the Lib Dems. These are the parties that pissed off Labour voters have felt comfortable to support in the past. Both must ask themselves why they are being passed over in favour of the Hairy Arsed Tory Monster in Wales? The monster that Wales last gave majority support to in Westminster in 1832!
If Plaid's left cant make a forcible case for left of centre social democratic nationalism in the present political climate then it may as well give up, because it is never likely to have more favourable circumstances!
The alternative for the party, of course, is to ditch socialism and campaign for the center right vote that seems to be gaining ground in Wales as old style socialism breaths its last, a center right vote that Politics Home suggests is being hoovered up by the Welsh Conservatives!