21/09/2008

Conservatives - the biggest party in Wales

According to a massive opinion poll of nearly 35,000 people conducted by Politics Home in 238 marginal seats across the UK including a number in Wales, the Conservative Party is set to become the largest Party in Wales in Westminster representation.

The poll reckons that the Tories will have 18 seats:

Aberconwy
Bridgend
Cardiff North
Cardiff West
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Delyn
Gower
Newport West
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Brecon and Radnorshire
Monmouth
Alyn and Deeside,
Cardiff South and Penarth
Newport East



Plaid Cymru will have five (re-gaining Anglesey and Cardigan - but not advancing into new territory)

Arfon
Ceredigion
Ynys Mon
Dwyfor Meirion
Carmarthen East & Deinefwr


The Liberal Democrats will be reduced to two

Cardiff Central
Montgomeryshire


Peoples Voice will hold on to Blaenau Gwent

Leaving Labour with just 14 seats!

I can't see it happening myself.

I suspect that half of the predicted "gains" will be near misses for the Tories, as supporters of the three non Tory parties shift allegiance to the best placed non Tory candidate (probably Labour)

I reckon that Plaid can gain Aberconwy and Llanelli, giving them seven, with a bit of hard work and a lot of bottle Caerffili and Cwm Cynon could be in Plaid's grasp - but highly unlikely.

The weird thing is that listening to people on the street, I get the feeling that Labour is losing support because of its failure to address issues of social democracy and the left:

High energy costs for the old and the poor, the 10p tax rate for poorer workers, a lack of respect for civil liberties, not saving public services such as the Post office, allowing free markets to cripple the economy etc.

If Labour was more left wing and more social democratic it would be more popular!

In these circumstances the Liberal Democrats and Plaid should be making hay. Polls should be suggesting that both parties would be looking at double figure gains in Wales with a Tory wipe out.

The fact that the people of Wales see the Tory's as their saviour in the face of Labour failure is an indictment of both Plaid and the Lib Dems. These are the parties that pissed off Labour voters have felt comfortable to support in the past. Both must ask themselves why they are being passed over in favour of the Hairy Arsed Tory Monster in Wales? The monster that Wales last gave majority support to in Westminster in 1832!

If Plaid's left cant make a forcible case for left of centre social democratic nationalism in the present political climate then it may as well give up, because it is never likely to have more favourable circumstances!

The alternative for the party, of course, is to ditch socialism and campaign for the center right vote that seems to be gaining ground in Wales as old style socialism breaths its last, a center right vote that Politics Home suggests is being hoovered up by the Welsh Conservatives!

6 comments:

  1. You seem to be confusing yourself in this post MOF!

    On the one hand you say Labour would be more popular if it stuck to Socialist policies, on the other hand you say that Plaid and the Lib Dems are losing because they are sticking to socialist policies!

    You can't have it both ways ......... Doh!

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  2. Not at all. What I'm trying to say is that Labour has failed to show that the "left" can give answers to the problems that the poor have trusted them with for generations.

    Plaid has tried in the past to be a better left wing party than Labour to no avail.

    The poll suggests that Plaid cannot gain disaffected Labour votes by saying we can do a better "left wing / social democratic" job than Labour has -such an attitude is doomed to failure, because the people have decided that the left can't solve their problems.

    To succeed what Plaid needs to do is take up the position once held by the One Nation Tories - the nice of center then there would be many more Welsh votes within their grasp than a socialist clarion call can ever deliver

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  3. aberconwy conservative21/09/2008, 10:58

    Plaid won't gain Aberconwy, even though they won it at assembly level. The big vote in the constituency is in the Deganwy / Llandudno / Penrhyn Bay end. This is by and large a Tory area, where the voters tend not to turn out in large numbers at assembly elections. That area also has a large retired population, more likely to turn out at general elections. Aberconwy will turn Conservative at the next election and Guto Bebb will have a respectable majority.

    Interestingly, Aberconwy is increasingly looking like a rare Tory - Plaid bellwether seat. It may stay Plaid at Assembly elections, especially if the next Tory government becomes unpopular. However, at general elections it is likely to remain Conservative.

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  4. little red rooster21/09/2008, 16:12

    Firstly, I don't believe a snapshot poll can gauge individual constituencies - which is whyI'd back the Tories to win Montgomery from Lembit but not Aberconwy from Plaid.
    Secondly, your thesis is totally flawed - you say Labour needs to be more left wing but then say that Plaid should ape the Tories to win.
    Labour can't shift left - it's tied its wagon to the millionaires and financiers.
    The recent shift by the Lib Dems at a UK level to the right (mirrored by Kirsty's unconvincing claim that she'd go into coalition with the Tories in Wales) means that there is no-one but Plaid for those voters looking for a left alternative.
    Cameron is no One Nation tory - he's Blair Mk2, a public schoolboy who'll do or say anything to get elected.

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  5. I have done the number crunching using these latest poll figures - but I have the Conservatives winning Aberconwy and Plaid taking Llanelli.

    And it would not be impossible for Plaid to take Caerffili or Neath - just depends on the candidate....adam??

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  6. It's not left wing or socialist to believe that it's criminal that the working poor are the most heavily taxed group in society. I'm pro-capitalist and I believe that.

    It's utterly shameful and the Labour left voted to cut the 10% tax rate just like the rest of their god-awful party. Infact it was "right-wingers" like Frank Field who were among the handful to speak-up for the over-taxed poor.

    socialism = Poverty thats the lesson of the last century

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