There has been a lot of excitement on the Blogosphere since both of Tomos Livingstone's mobile phones rang last night to say that the Liberal Democrats had suspended talks with Labour. (What's the point of having two mobile phones - one for each ear?)
But the Rainbow Coalition isn't a done deal, and may still not come off. Bethan Jenkins a new AM from Plaid's left has already blogged a warning shot over the bows of those in Plaid who are warming to the proposal. On Maes-e some Plaid members are threatening to rip up their membership cards if Plaid gets into bed with those who destroyed their valley community. Even if IWJ is gagging for the First Minister's job there is only a 50/50 chance that his own party officials will let him take it.
More important is the use of the word suspended in Mike German's statement. The Lib-Lab talks aren’t over they have just been put aside for a bit. It's no secret that Mike has had a few internal difficulties over the past few weeks. Suspension could prove the trump card that saves him, the thing that gives him more from a Lib-Lab pact than his critics can refuse. More importantly it could be the trump card that saves Rhodri.
Morgan has had difficulties within his own group in selling a Lib-Lab coalition or a Lab-Plaid understanding to his AM's. What both parties are asking in return for agreement has been too much for some Labour AM's. Faced with the possibility of a Plaid-Led-Tory-Including-Government with Labour in opposition some of the Labour die-hards are going to give ground, giving Mike what he needs to sell a Lib-Lab coalition to his party, or giving Ieuan what he needs to sell a Lab-Plaid understanding to his and giving Rhodri the chance of remaining FM.
I hate the Labour Party with a passion so I hope that a Rainbow Coalition comes off, but I'm not ready to bet real money on it yet - despite the hype.
More about Rainbows:
Genesis 9:13 - Glyn Davies - Martin Egleston - Gareth Wyn - Scottish Futures - 10% - Ted Jones - Welsh Labour Mark - Renewed Labour - The Shooting Prof - Damon Lord - Aberafon & Neath Lib Dems - Blamerbell - Pontygwyndy - Tortoiseshell - Rhys Llwyd - Bratiaith - Glasflog - Vaughan - Our Kingdom