Marginality of Constituencies

This is a list of the Assembly constituencies arranged according to the numbers of votes that the challenging party would need to gain in order to win the seat (not the percentage majority)
Constituency% MajFig MajHolder2nd Place
1 V of Glam0.283LabCon
2 V of Clwyd0.492LabCon
3 Carm W & S Pembs0.398ConLab
4 Delyn2.4511LabCon
5 Newport E4.4875LabLib D
6 Clwyd S5.71119LabCon
7 Gower4.31192LabCon
8 Wrexham6.41250LabInd
9 Newport W5.91401LabCon
10 Swansea W6.61511LabLib D
11 Clwyd W6.11596ConLab
12 Aberconwy8.21713PlaidCon
13 Neath7.71944LabPlaid
14 Montgomery8.91979Lib DCon
15 Islwyn9.42218LabInd
16 Caerphilly8.82287LabPlaid
17 Bridgend10.42556LabCon
18 Cdff South & P10.32754LabCon
19 Presli Pemb11.23205ConLab
20 Pontypridd14.23347LabLib D
21 Alyn & D. Side15.93362LabCon
22 Cdff West13.83698LabCon
23 Llanelli14.13938PlaidLab
24 Ceredigion13.13955PlaidLib D
25 Ynys Mon16.44392PlaidInd
26 Merthyr T21.84581LabLib D
27 Cdff North14.44844ConLab
28 Swansea E23.94961LabLib D
29 Arfon25.65018PlaidLab
30 Bl Gwent22.85354IndLab
31 Bre & Rad18.65357Lib DCon
32 Torfaen23.25396LabCon
33 Cynon V28.85623LabPlaid
34 Rhondda28.16215LabPlaid
35 Cdff Cent29.36565Lib DLab
36 Aberavon 32.06571LabPlaid
37 Ogmore34.77900LabPlaid
38 Carm E & Din28.98469PlaidLab
39 Monmouth28.68469ConLab
40 Dwyfor Meir40.18868PlaidCon


  1. Of course that list doesn't show that Plaid were within 250 votes of winning Carmarthen West.

    It's great that Plaid are still the second party in Wales but the failure to win in places like the Rhondda, Cynon Valley etc shows that the left-wing, socialist element are never going to supplant Labour from the left. For an old timer like myself its a funny old world where Plaid is far more likely to win Cardiff West than Merthyr Tudful.

    The sooner Plaid dumps its socialist agenda the better. The failed and discredited philosophies of the last century have no place.

    Lets face it a left wing programme is never going to win the Valleys for us. Tried that, failed abysmally, time to move on. Plaid needs to be in tune with today not some romantic view of the 1930s

  2. Ig we keep this voting system for the next election. It's game on for all parties. Except for the Rhondda of course.

  3. The problem with that list is that you have only noted the Party in 2nd place. What about Plaid in Carmarthen West? Plaid in Clwyd West? Plaid in Preseli Penfro? There are many seats that are 3 way marginals, I suggest that the 3rd Party is added to the list if they are close to the 2nd.