Lies Damned Lies and Welsh polls #2

On his Welsh language BBC Blog, the BBC's Welsh affair's editor Vaughan Roderick confirms my doubts about the way Welsh polls are weighted

Vaughan has seen the original unweighted results of the NOP poll conducted for ITV. The unweighted results show that more respondents had told the pollsters that they intended to vote for Plaid than had declared an intention to vote Conservative.

In the constituency vote 182 of those who were polled declared for Plaid Cymru, whilst 180 gave their support to the Conservatives.

But despite Plaid Cymru being in second place in the poll and having slightly more support the published results gave the Conservatives a 3% point lead over Plaid - odd, but typical of the nonsense that passes for Welsh Psephology

A full translation of Vaughan Roderick's post can be found here.

In his latest post, in the early hours of the morning, Vaughan teases his reader that there is "more to come" on the ITV/NOP scandal!

1 comment:

  1. In the good old days, they used to publish both the raw data and the "likely to vote" data. Why don't they do that now? Don't they think we can make up our own minds ?

    Mind you, the thought of the loss of Dai Lloyd and the gaining of an extra Tory has pretty much decided my vote.