According to Martin Shipton of the Western Mail, A Labour Plaid coalition "now seems all but certain" as the majority of Plaid's AMs have stated that they will back the deal on Tuesday. Not only will they back the deal but they will insist that the Red-Green deal is the only deal on the table at the National Council on July 7th. Plaid's grass roots members will be denied the opportunity to discuss the Rainbow deal in the National Council, despite the fact (or perhaps because of the fact) that a poll to be published latter on today is rumoured to show that a majority of Plaid supporters prefer the Rainbow option.
I am disappointed, but not surprised. The fallacy in Plaid that the way to beat Labour is to pretend to be Labour has been ingrained into the party too deeply for the past 20 years, despite the fact that it is a policy that hasn't worked.
With a Westminster election on the horizon I had hoped that Plaid might regain Anglesey and Ceredigion and gain the new constituencies of Arfon and Aberconwy giving Plaid a record six seats. I can't see Plaid's decision to prop up the party that has shown nothing but contempt for rural communities and nothing but hatred for the Welsh Language and culture going down too well in these areas. I hope that I am wrong.
Alwyn, the truth is that both options have a knock-on effect on the UK General Election. However, if, as you say, people woll become disgruntled with Plaid for joining forces with Labour, then I would hazzard a guess that the surely the parties to benefit from this would be the Lib Dems and Conservatives.
ReplyDeleteI think it is too early to give an informed guess as to how exactly the parties will pan out. The timiming of the UK General Election will also play its part - there was a suggestion on the Today Programme this morning that it might be held as early as next Spring!
As to the four constituencies you mentioned, I agree that three of them are too volatile to predict. However, it would come as a great shock if Arfon did not vote a Plaid MP, don't you think?
Alwyn said:
ReplyDelete"With a Westminster election on the horizon I had hoped that Plaid might regain Anglesey and Ceredigion and gain the new constituencies of Arfon and Aberconwy giving Plaid a record six seats. I can't see Plaid's decision to prop up the party that has shown nothing but contempt for rural communities and nothing but hatred for the Welsh Language and culture going down too well in these areas. I hope that I am wrong."
Plaid will be judged by the extent it performs in government irespective of wich option is taken.
Its too simplistic to make a decision on electoral advantage surely. The important issue is to what extent the devolution process can move along.
Alwyn said:
ReplyDelete"Not only will they back the deal but they will insist that the Red-Green deal is the only deal on the table at the National Council on July 7th. Plaid's grass roots"
Its not the AMs or indeed anyone else that will insist that there is only one deal on the table. Unfortunately its Plaid's constitution that ensure's that only one recomendation goes forward.
Unfortunate but obviously when drawn up nobody forsaw a situation such as this arising
Gwe said As to the four constituencies you mentioned, I agree that three of them are too volatile to predict. However, it would come as a great shock if Arfon did not vote a Plaid MP, don't you think?
ReplyDeleteThe Arfon constituency is "notionally" a Labour seat (although I am not sure how that nationality was decided), so it can't be taken for granted as a sure Plaid win in the next election.
Anonymous said Plaid will be judged by the extent it performs in government irespective of wich option is taken.
Its too simplistic to make a decision on electoral advantage surely. The important issue is to what extent the devolution process can move along.
I wish it was true that parties were judged on policy and performance. Unfortunately bias does pay a large part on how people decide to vote.
My concerns are more about moving the the national issue along rather than devolution. More devolution after the 2015 election (what was being offered by Labour last week according to some reports) will delay the national cause.
Alun Ffred had a big majority in the same 'new' constituency this time round.
ReplyDeleteMy question was this - why would this benefit Labour in Arfon if Red/Green gets in and proves to be really unpopular?
"More devolution after the 2015 election (what was being offered by Labour last week according to some reports) will delay the national cause. "
ReplyDeleteBarring a revolution, I think this is the earliest date at which a new parliament will be up and running, providing, of course, people vote 'yes' in a referendum.
Don't forget that by 2015, devolution will, in any case, have moved on with X amount of measures in place for perpuity and Whitehall will doubtless have ceded more power too.
Do you seriously think Plaid can govern Wales with no presence where ,most of the population resides?
ReplyDeleteThat will only ever arise from being a left of centre party which appeals to the majority of the Welsh people.
Think again.