It is interesting that the Conservatives have won the GE on less than 37% of those registered to vote and fewer than 25% of those entitled to vote, but yet the Campaign seemed to be one of trying to swing voters from one party to another, whilst the "spare vote" was obviously elsewhere! With both Labour and Tories being advised by US "election gurus" who believe in both restricting the vote and making policy on what focus groups believe and becoming a choice of two sames, neither turnout nor result is surprising.
If I was a party advisor I would charge Billions of pounds for this simple advice to any party, forget gaining votes from other parties, I'm voting Plaid and nothing will change my mind, chase the disaffected, register the unregistered, that nonvoting part of the electorate is what will give you a solid majority.
And therein lies a problem, Plaid does better in Assembly Elections because fewer vote.
In 2003 I was asked, by Plaid, to take down a Plaid supporting poster from my window because it might alert others to the election and my wife and I were the only committed Plaid voters on our estate. Since adopting that strategy Plaid's share of the vote has declined year after year. The ONLY way #Plaid16 can win is by going out to gain votes, getting non voters TO vote and registering potential voters. The policy of shushing and hoping for a low turnout is past its sell by date.
Plaid got a fair vote in many constituencies in the Westminster GE, hoping it turns out in secret next year is not an electoral strategy! Plaid really needs to persuade non voters, and as yet unregistered voters, to vote Plaid in 2016 and make a song and dance about how fantastic it's campaign is, rather than hoping that only committed nashies vote in a pathetically low turnout!
I agree with much of what you say, there are hundreds of thousands of non voters, non registered, they are the disenfranchised who feel that no political party can represent them.
ReplyDeleteWith the Tory/UKIP vote so strong and the lurch rightwards, how long do you think it will take for a referendum on abolition the Welsh Assembly to make its way up the political agenda?
ReplyDeleteI’ll make a prediction that the Assembly results will be exactly as they were on Thursday, because neither Plaid Cymru or Labour have got the faintest idea what’s going on with the electorate or how to appeal the them. We could even see the Tories and UKIP strength putting them in poll position to form a Welsh government.
I see no evidence of a strong Tory or UKIP vote, nor a lurch rightwards; the only strong vote in the last 10 elections has been the no show vote; the lurch has been can't-be-botheredward. I don't have any evidence to prove it but I would strongly suspect that those not voting are to the left of new Labour, people who feel that no party has any hope to offer them.
DeleteCan't agree, Alwyn. To make assumptions like that is no better than arguing that everybody who didn't vote in the 1997 devolution referendum was opposed to devolution.
DeleteIt isn't the same as assuming that everybody who didn't vote in '97 was opposed to devolution, it's saying that the turnout reflected the fact that both Yes and No failed to persuade the majority to give a sod about devolution one way or the other
DeleteThe UK voting system is undemocratic anyway, the debate on AV and PR is what we should be doing now. Primarily because Wales will never win any debate whilst London alone can vote us down. Labour prided itself on being the party of the working man and the downtrodden, now it is out because it tried to be that while emulating the tories to win England's middle class vote, while not creating work in wales, it had no chance, and alienated Welsh voters. Expect frustrated voters to vote protest, and that suggests UKIP who are more right wing than the tories. The total failure of Wales to protect the NHS also was their downfall, as is what the hell do they do if the referendum says out of Europe ? Will they vote Plaid to get out of the UK too ? Labour seems committed to Europe.
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