Glenrothes Revisited

There has been a huge amount of analysis in the weekend papers about the result in the Glenrothes by-election. Most commentators seem to concentrate on Alex Salmonds' arrogance or on Labour stirring up a local council issue of community care fees, rather than Westminster issues. Others refer to the Brown Bounce and the financial crisis. I feel that all of the commentators, whatever their political bias, have missed one crucial factor. The most shocking figure in the by-election was the turnout!

The average turnout for the whole of the UK in the 2005 general election was 62%. Glenrothes was one of those constituencies that dragged the average down. Only 55% of the good folk of the constituency bothered to vote. In by-elections, turnout is usually considerably lower. The average by-election turnout in the UK for the past 10years was just 38%, it would not have been surprising if fewer than 30% voted in Glenrothes. But in this by election the vote was only just down on the constituency's 2005 turnout at 53%.

The SNP was not expecting to get more than the 13,000 vote that it had. Both SNP and Labour returns were showing that level of support. With a 38-45% turnout 13K would have given the SNP it's expected win. What went wrong for the SNP and gave Labour the victory was that about 8,000 people who shouldn't have voted in a by-election did vote.

Nobody from any of the parties, or amongst the pundits, saw this extra vote coming. When the polls close the expectation was that it was in the bag for the SNP. So where did this extra surge come from?

One could go for the conspiracy or fiddle theories, I suspect that it has more to do with boozing!

The people least likely to register on canvas returns are the under 25 year old voters. When they are at home their Mams or their Dads will answer the door or phone to canvassers. Many of them are absent voters in their collage residences.

Usually it doesn't matter because they don't bother to vote anyway. But with the SNP's policy (opposed by its own student group) to raise the legal drinking age to 21, I suspect that many of the unexpected votes came from young voters.

I respect the SNP's commitment to tackle Scotland's binge drinking culture, there is no doubt that it needs to be tackled, but it is a fact that the nationalist vote is also the youngest vote in Scottish (and Welsh) politics. The SNP needs to look at ways in which to address the drink culture in a way that doesn't demonise the young, because if it loses its youth vote (as I suspect it did in Glenrothes) then it will find itself up the world famous creek without a paddle!

Congratulations Lindsay Roy MP

Disappointing result in Glenrothes. The Labour party has not only held on to the seat but also increased their share of the vote.

However the SNP did increase its vote by 13% so the result hardly bursts the SNP's bubble or ends Alex Salmond's honeymoon, but disappointing nevertheless.

Congratulations to Lindsay Roy MP.

Odd Odds

During the Glasgow East by election I mentioned the weird tale of a Labour committee member who supposedly collected £1000 from party supporters and used it to bet on a Labour victory in order to skew the bookies reported odds in favour of his candidate. In the Times and the Scotsman yesterday there were reports that an SNP activist has e-mailed party members encouraging them to pop down to their local bookies and put £10 on the SNP candidate in Glenrothes in order to swing the odds in the nationalists favour.

During my 150 years experience of political campaigning I have never, ever heard of anybody changing their voting intention based on the bookies odds. If SNP supporters have a tenner to spare they know that the best way to use it in order to influence the vote is to donate it to the campaign fund, rather than donating it to William Hill.

I didn't believe the Glasgow East tale and I don't believe the Glenrothes tale, both stories smack of a bit of spin from bookies trying to drum up trade, rather than honest political reporting.

HT Jeff

Lose-Lose for Labour

Odd story in yesterday's Scotsman, which has confirmed rumours on a number of blogs over the past few weeks. Apparently Labour intend to hold the Glenrothes by election on:

either Thursday, 30 October or Thursday, 6 November for the contest.

The November date is the favourite simply because it comes only a day after the expected result of the American presidential election, and if Labour was to lose, party managers believe the bad news would be partly buried by the US coverage.

Apart from the fact that a defeatist attitude of defending a seat by preparing to lose it isn't the best tactic to use when entering an election campaign, a victory in these circumstances could also backfire.

With a 28% majority and no accounting for what events might throw up over the next ten weeks a Labour hold is not inconceivable, whatever the bookies might say. If Labour was to hang on, even by the skin of its teeth, it should be the beginning of Labours fight back; it should be Labour halting the advance of the SNP / the Tories, it should be the beginning of the new beginning for Labour. But what if that message got buried in the coverage of the US presidential election? The knives would still be out for poor Mr Brown and his advisers :-)

Exit Music for Labour

In the latest book in the series, Exit Music D.I. Rebus solves his last crime and retires from the police force. The end of his creations carer might mean that the author of the Rebus books has some time on his hands, time that might be put to use by standing for parliament perhaps.

A friend of a friend of a friend of Ian Rankin assures me that the author is seriously considering throwing his hat into the ring as a potential Labour candidate in the forthcoming Glenrothes by election.

The other name that had been strongly rumoured to be a favourite for candidate, former First Minister Henry McLeish, seems to have been fatally stabbed in the back by unnamed Labour colleagues. I wonder if Inspector Rebus can find out who wielded the knife.

Labour set to keep hold of Glasgow East?

According to a poll to be published in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph Labour is set to hold Glasgow East with a fairly healthy majority:

Labour is on course to win this month’s crucial by-election in Glasgow East, according to an opinion poll.
The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.

Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.

The poll, the first conducted within the rock-solid Labour seat, is a big boost for Gordon Brown.

Update UK Polling report has some interesting thoughts as to why this poll might not be quite the good news for Labour as the published figures might suggest