As we have seen, during the last three Assembly Elections, it is almost impossible for the Labour Party to gain a List AM. Voting Labour on the list has been a wasted vote for the past 17 years.
With the fascist party UKIP standing on the list in this year's elections, wasting a list vote on Labour could make a difference, it could let the fascists into our National Assembly by default.
I understand party loyalty, I know why you want to give both votes to Labour, but you must consider the consequences of doing so. By lending your second vote to Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party even the Monster Raving Loony Party you reduce the value of the UKIP list vote, you make it less likely that the fascists can gain a foothold in Our Assembly.
A wasted list vote for Labour is a defacto vote for UKIP!
Sod's Law do we vote for Tories instead ? They are worse than UKIP who at least managed to create momentum for a referendum,whilst Labour pulls its hair worrying the handouts will stop, and Europe threatening all sorts along with Cameron if we dare ask for democracy. How can Wales benefit from entering this 'European political song contest ?" when the odds are continually 27-1 against...ReplyDelete
Call my cynical but I suspect that quite a few Labour campaigners are quitly telling their supporters to give their list vote to ukip as it further splits the opposition and won't cost them any seats.ReplyDelete
At the very least anyone who says they are thinking of voting ukip will be encouraged to split their vote this way
It's ironic that under our voting system ukip can get most of their votes from Labour but only take seats from every one else.
It’s a fine idea, but I agree with anon above, Labour are happy enough for their supporters to vote Labour twice or UKIP on the list because it makes no difference to them, they’ll govern alone with anything from 25 - 28 seats because the opposition will be split 4 ways in May’s elections and will be easy to pick off on a policy by policy basis for the next 5 years.ReplyDelete
I think Labour's over-confidence it will walk it, may be misplaced. Whilst it is true many older voters would never vote Tory under any circumstances, change happens and new voters don't have the same allegiances. When youth had its say in Scotland they voted nationalist. It seems those who buck the Labour or Tory assumptions in voting may well give the UKIP a real voice at the assembly. Plaid has blown it squabbling over petty asides and then opposing health reform in a ya-boo response.. Grow up Plaid.Delete
25 - 28 seats? Labour got 29 - and two police commissioners.Delete
Thank you for pointing this out Alwyn - we need to try and get this stark warning across to as many labour voters as possible between now and Senedd polling day.ReplyDelete
Realistically UKIP will win list seats in every region. West Wales gave Labour two list seats last time out so you have to say that William Powell (Lib Dem) might lose out this time. Of course if HMJ gains Llanelli then this could cost Simon Thomas his list seat.ReplyDelete
On the whole though, for the rest of Wales this is accurate unless the valleys does the unthinkable and elects a non-Labour AM.
William, is a (Liberalish) ToryDelete
Simon Thomas has been working Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire hard. He is often seen canvassing with his enthusiastic team in the constituency. Items relating to campaigns such as keeping services at Withybush hospital and the closure of St Clears police station are regularly reported in the local papers. The most recent poll by Roger Scully on his Ratio Swing projection over at Elections in Wales have marked Llanelli and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire as Plaid gains.ReplyDelete
For the second time polls are suggesting ST will win Carmarthen WestReplyDelete
I admire your non-partisan approach by suggesting that Labour voters could vote Plaid, Lib Dem, Green, MRL, etc., on the list to keep UKIP out, but the mathematical reality is that only by voting Plaid or Conservative on the list would UKIP's regional seats go from potentially 9ish to 5ish.ReplyDelete
If the polls are to be believed then I'm afraid the LDs could not win any list seats under almost any circumstances, and they will do extremely well just to hold on to Brecon and Radnor and maybe sneak Cardiff Central if they put all their eggs in those two baskets. The Greens just don't have the base numbers to even begin to challenge UKIP on the list. I'm afraid that both of those would just be a wasted vote as well (from a keep UKIP out perspective, but perhaps not from other perspectives).
Only the Conservatives and Plaid will challenge UKIP for list seats in the North, South West Wales, South Wales Central and South Wales East. Which of those a strategic Labour voter might possibly vote for is another question...
It is important to note however that it would only require a modest proportion of Labour voters to switch their regional vote to Plaid to have a real effect. And of course, the more who do, the more UKIP 'loses' potential seats. It is also important to note that the key Plaid/UKIP battle grounds for list seats are the 3 south Wales regions. It could be 6-3 UKIP-Plaid or 3-6 UKIP-Plaid depending on a couple of thousand votes either way. The D'Hondt system is not truly proportional, and so it is still about 'winning' in specific areas.
Labour CANNOT win any list seats in the south, even if they had a meltdown and lost a few constituency seats. They are already over-represented by holding that swathe of valleys and city constituencies and the top-up system will not reward them. Based on current polls the Lib Dems and Greens CANNOT win any list seats anywhere in Wales (not even nearly...).
I wonder how 'strategic' the Welsh electorate has become? I wonder if some voters' loathing of UKIP trumps any previously held prejudices about Plaid?
UKIP aren't fascist.. it's disrespectful to those who have actually experienced real fascismReplyDelete