Earlier this month a poll, by ITV Wales/ YouGov, asked voters how Wales should be governed just 10% said Wales should become independent and only a third of Plaid Cymru voters said that they would want an independent Wales.
Interesting findings.
The Population of Wales is just shy of 3 Million (about 2.2 milion of voting age), so if this data is correct about 300,000 of us want Wales to be independent. That is a huge base on which to build the national cause.
Plaid Cymru gained about 170,000 votes in the last Assembly elections; if only one third of them support independence fewer than 60 thousand of the 300 thousand supporters of independence voted Plaid!
ITV/YouGov's finding that only one sixth of the supporters of independence vote for Plaid Cymru should be food for thought for whoever becomes the next Plaid leader!
It must also be food for thought for us non-aligned Welsh nationalists!
There is clearly a need for a non party / cross party organisation that can represent the views of close to a quarter of a million supporters of independence who didn't vote Plaid last time, for whatever reason, but might like another way of expressing their support to the national cause.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
18/06/2011
Fantastic Poll for Plaid
Politicall Betting has a poll that makes fantastic reading for Plaid Cymru. It is an UK wide poll by Comres for the Independent and gives the parties the following vote share:
CON 37:
LAB 37:
LD 11:
BNP 9%:
SNP 5%:
GRN 4%:
PC 4%:
UKIP 4%:
OTHERS 13%.
As Wales makes up just 5% of the UK vote, for Plaid to have 4% of the UK vote it would have to poll about 80% in Wales itself. Should we get the champagne out or just put this down to yet further proof that polls are rubbish?
CON 37:
LAB 37:
LD 11:
BNP 9%:
SNP 5%:
GRN 4%:
PC 4%:
UKIP 4%:
OTHERS 13%.
As Wales makes up just 5% of the UK vote, for Plaid to have 4% of the UK vote it would have to poll about 80% in Wales itself. Should we get the champagne out or just put this down to yet further proof that polls are rubbish?
01/05/2011
Why rumours are less reliable than Welsh opinion polls
I don't have a lot of faith in Welsh opinion polls; they are conducted on a UK, even worse an USA model. A model that can predict the outcome of a 650 seat legislature cannot, without immense refinement, predict a 60 seat legislature with any accuracy. To make things worse the Welsh polls use an UK weighting method to predict their seat distribution. Wales is not a mini UK.
The ITV/YouGov polls are a welcome addition to the Welsh political scene; I hope that they continue; but all they are showing at the moment is trends – they cannot make seat predictions in their present form.
If we can't rely on the polls, then the next best thing that we have is the ear on the ground, the rumours from the constituencies, the party's canvassing results that we are fed that say there may be a shock in constituency X. But these are even less reliable than the polls.
My first experience of political campaigning was in the February 1974 election. I had agreed to be part of the Liberal Party's canvassing team in Merionethshire. I put a poster supporting my candidate in my bedroom window; but when Dad came home he ordered me to take it down in case somebody put a brick through the window or in case he was sacked from his job by his employer of a different political persuasion!
I hadn't realised that democratic differences could cause such animosity, so on my first canvassing outing I wore brown trousers because I was really frightened of being physically and verbally abused by those who were going to vote against my man. I was pleasantly surprised. At every door I knocked on I was received with courtesy, nobody assaulted me, nobody set the dogs on me, everybody said they would consider voting for my candidate. I honestly thought that we would win handsomely from my canvass experience – we came a miserable fourth!
And another thing, when parties are quietly confident of winning a seat or retaining a marginal, they tend to keep that confidence quiet; rather than alerting the media (and their challengers) of their confidence. When parties need to big up their chances in a particular constituency, it's because their returns show that they are not quite there yet so they need spin in order to give an impression of winning here.
We can't trust polls, we can't trust the rumour. The only thing that we can trust is that, with just four days to go, there are still votes to win and opinions to change – so put your blood and guts into supporting your candidates over these last few essential days!
The ITV/YouGov polls are a welcome addition to the Welsh political scene; I hope that they continue; but all they are showing at the moment is trends – they cannot make seat predictions in their present form.
If we can't rely on the polls, then the next best thing that we have is the ear on the ground, the rumours from the constituencies, the party's canvassing results that we are fed that say there may be a shock in constituency X. But these are even less reliable than the polls.
My first experience of political campaigning was in the February 1974 election. I had agreed to be part of the Liberal Party's canvassing team in Merionethshire. I put a poster supporting my candidate in my bedroom window; but when Dad came home he ordered me to take it down in case somebody put a brick through the window or in case he was sacked from his job by his employer of a different political persuasion!
I hadn't realised that democratic differences could cause such animosity, so on my first canvassing outing I wore brown trousers because I was really frightened of being physically and verbally abused by those who were going to vote against my man. I was pleasantly surprised. At every door I knocked on I was received with courtesy, nobody assaulted me, nobody set the dogs on me, everybody said they would consider voting for my candidate. I honestly thought that we would win handsomely from my canvass experience – we came a miserable fourth!
And another thing, when parties are quietly confident of winning a seat or retaining a marginal, they tend to keep that confidence quiet; rather than alerting the media (and their challengers) of their confidence. When parties need to big up their chances in a particular constituency, it's because their returns show that they are not quite there yet so they need spin in order to give an impression of winning here.
We can't trust polls, we can't trust the rumour. The only thing that we can trust is that, with just four days to go, there are still votes to win and opinions to change – so put your blood and guts into supporting your candidates over these last few essential days!
01/03/2011
A Poll and a Pinch of Salt
The results of the recent ITV YouGov poll were published on S4C's Y Byd ar Bedwar tonight. The opinion poll suggests that 67% of us will vote yes and 33% will vote no; this seems over optimistic to me; I would have expected the vote to be much, much closer.
Even odder is the poll's suggestion that turn out will be a whopping 56%!
I tend to agree with Jac of the North's assessment of the campaign so far:
I haven't seen any enthusiasm for either side's argument, the vast majority of my friends and acquaintances either don't know or don't care about the issue.
OK YouGov have done a scientific poll, I have just heard what the people in the shop and the pub have said, but my expectation is that turnout will be about 30% and that the split will be about 51% 49%, but I wouldn't want to commit to which side will win which percentage.
I hope that YouGov is right and that I'm wrong but if I was in charge of either side I would neither rest on my laurels or throw in the towel based on what appears to me to be a rather iffy poll finding.
Even odder is the poll's suggestion that turn out will be a whopping 56%!
I tend to agree with Jac of the North's assessment of the campaign so far:
"Rugby players say Yes', Business says Yes', 'Man at bus stop says "what referendum?"'
I haven't seen any enthusiasm for either side's argument, the vast majority of my friends and acquaintances either don't know or don't care about the issue.
OK YouGov have done a scientific poll, I have just heard what the people in the shop and the pub have said, but my expectation is that turnout will be about 30% and that the split will be about 51% 49%, but I wouldn't want to commit to which side will win which percentage.
I hope that YouGov is right and that I'm wrong but if I was in charge of either side I would neither rest on my laurels or throw in the towel based on what appears to me to be a rather iffy poll finding.
16/11/2009
New Welsh Poll on Friday?
YouGov has sent out invitations to panel members to take part in the second of its series of Welsh political opinion polls.
The last poll invitation was sent out on the 22nd October and the results published five days latter. If the current poll follows the same pattern then this result should be out on Friday. It will be interesting to see what, if any, changes there have been over the past month.
Any body wishing to join YouGov and possibly be selected for the next Welsh panel can do so by clicking THIS LINK
The last poll invitation was sent out on the 22nd October and the results published five days latter. If the current poll follows the same pattern then this result should be out on Friday. It will be interesting to see what, if any, changes there have been over the past month.
Any body wishing to join YouGov and possibly be selected for the next Welsh panel can do so by clicking THIS LINK
27/10/2009
Welsh poll - read the small print!
Before Labour supporters start drowning their sorrows and Conservative supporters start dancing in the street in reaction to today's YouGov poll - a word of caution. Apparently The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). This has been one of the reasons why most previous Welsh polls have proved disastrously inaccurate. Wales is not a mini GB. In Wales the C2s Ds and Es are a much more important factor in elections than the C1s who swing middle England for one party or an other.
Its good to see the beginning of regular Welsh polling, but until there have been a number of Welsh polls which can be used to show trends and until there have been enough polls conducted near real elections in order for the weighting to be adjusted to reflect actual voting patterns the results of Welsh polls must still be treated with caution and digested with a large pinch of salt.
Its good to see the beginning of regular Welsh polling, but until there have been a number of Welsh polls which can be used to show trends and until there have been enough polls conducted near real elections in order for the weighting to be adjusted to reflect actual voting patterns the results of Welsh polls must still be treated with caution and digested with a large pinch of salt.
22/10/2009
Tanni for FM?
I have just completed a Welsh survey for YouGov. Amongst the predictable question about which party one would vote for and opinions about devolution there was this question:
Which one of these would you prefer to see as First Minister for Wales?
Katherine Jenkins
Tom Jones
Gavin Henson
Joe Calzaghe
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Ruth Jones
Ryan Giggs
Colin Jackson
Rob Brydon
Tanni Grey-Thompson
Charlotte Church
Duffy
Someone else
Don't know/ no preference
I voted for Tanni. Do you agree with my choice?
Apparently YouGov will be conducting a number of Welsh polls over the next few months, which will be analyzed by Richard Wyn Jones to see how accurate they are. The panel of those polled is made up of a weighted selection of Welsh members of YouGov. If you would like to join YouGov and be in with a chance of being selected for the Welsh panel you can do so by clicking HERE
Which one of these would you prefer to see as First Minister for Wales?
Katherine Jenkins
Tom Jones
Gavin Henson
Joe Calzaghe
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Ruth Jones
Ryan Giggs
Colin Jackson
Rob Brydon
Tanni Grey-Thompson
Charlotte Church
Duffy
Someone else
Don't know/ no preference
I voted for Tanni. Do you agree with my choice?
Apparently YouGov will be conducting a number of Welsh polls over the next few months, which will be analyzed by Richard Wyn Jones to see how accurate they are. The panel of those polled is made up of a weighted selection of Welsh members of YouGov. If you would like to join YouGov and be in with a chance of being selected for the Welsh panel you can do so by clicking HERE
22/05/2009
Odd Poll
A poll on ITN news tonight claimed that 54% of the electorate believe that a General Election should be held immediately. Only 45% said that they would vote in a General Election if held. Does this mean that 9% of the good citizens of these islands want an election in order to make a point of not voting in it?
29/04/2009
The Poll that got away
This is a bit of a late post. It relates to a story that was a big news item on the BBC's Radio Cymru and S4C news bulletins on Monday and was for a time the lead story on BBC Arlein.
I haven't mentioned it because I expected that it would also appear in the English MSM, on BBC Wales, ITV, The Western Mail or the Daily Post. But no! This appears to be a story that only Welsh speakers are interested in according to the MSM
A survey carried out by Beufort polled more than 1000 people in Wales. Only 11% of respondents considered themselves to be fluent Welsh speakers.
BUT
76% of them said that they thought that it is important for companies to advertise their services and wares in the Welsh Language.
82% of respondents said that the Welsh language is something to be proud of.
Why wasn't this story considered to be of interest to non Welsh speaking listeners and viewers of BBC and ITV Wales news programmes or readers of the Daily Post, the Western Mail or the Echo?
Would it be naughty to suggest that the editors prefere language conflict issues to dominate their coverage rather than to report the fact that most Welsh people, regardless of linguistic ability, support and value the Welsh Language as one of our national treasures?
I haven't mentioned it because I expected that it would also appear in the English MSM, on BBC Wales, ITV, The Western Mail or the Daily Post. But no! This appears to be a story that only Welsh speakers are interested in according to the MSM
A survey carried out by Beufort polled more than 1000 people in Wales. Only 11% of respondents considered themselves to be fluent Welsh speakers.
BUT
76% of them said that they thought that it is important for companies to advertise their services and wares in the Welsh Language.
82% of respondents said that the Welsh language is something to be proud of.
Why wasn't this story considered to be of interest to non Welsh speaking listeners and viewers of BBC and ITV Wales news programmes or readers of the Daily Post, the Western Mail or the Echo?
Would it be naughty to suggest that the editors prefere language conflict issues to dominate their coverage rather than to report the fact that most Welsh people, regardless of linguistic ability, support and value the Welsh Language as one of our national treasures?
21/09/2008
Conservatives - the biggest party in Wales
According to a massive opinion poll of nearly 35,000 people conducted by Politics Home in 238 marginal seats across the UK including a number in Wales, the Conservative Party is set to become the largest Party in Wales in Westminster representation.
The poll reckons that the Tories will have 18 seats:
Aberconwy
Bridgend
Cardiff North
Cardiff West
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Delyn
Gower
Newport West
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Brecon and Radnorshire
Monmouth
Alyn and Deeside,
Cardiff South and Penarth
Newport East
Plaid Cymru will have five (re-gaining Anglesey and Cardigan - but not advancing into new territory)
Arfon
Ceredigion
Ynys Mon
Dwyfor Meirion
Carmarthen East & Deinefwr
The Liberal Democrats will be reduced to two
Cardiff Central
Montgomeryshire
Peoples Voice will hold on to Blaenau Gwent
Leaving Labour with just 14 seats!
I can't see it happening myself.
I suspect that half of the predicted "gains" will be near misses for the Tories, as supporters of the three non Tory parties shift allegiance to the best placed non Tory candidate (probably Labour)
I reckon that Plaid can gain Aberconwy and Llanelli, giving them seven, with a bit of hard work and a lot of bottle Caerffili and Cwm Cynon could be in Plaid's grasp - but highly unlikely.
The weird thing is that listening to people on the street, I get the feeling that Labour is losing support because of its failure to address issues of social democracy and the left:
High energy costs for the old and the poor, the 10p tax rate for poorer workers, a lack of respect for civil liberties, not saving public services such as the Post office, allowing free markets to cripple the economy etc.
If Labour was more left wing and more social democratic it would be more popular!
In these circumstances the Liberal Democrats and Plaid should be making hay. Polls should be suggesting that both parties would be looking at double figure gains in Wales with a Tory wipe out.
The fact that the people of Wales see the Tory's as their saviour in the face of Labour failure is an indictment of both Plaid and the Lib Dems. These are the parties that pissed off Labour voters have felt comfortable to support in the past. Both must ask themselves why they are being passed over in favour of the Hairy Arsed Tory Monster in Wales? The monster that Wales last gave majority support to in Westminster in 1832!
If Plaid's left cant make a forcible case for left of centre social democratic nationalism in the present political climate then it may as well give up, because it is never likely to have more favourable circumstances!
The alternative for the party, of course, is to ditch socialism and campaign for the center right vote that seems to be gaining ground in Wales as old style socialism breaths its last, a center right vote that Politics Home suggests is being hoovered up by the Welsh Conservatives!
The poll reckons that the Tories will have 18 seats:
Aberconwy
Bridgend
Cardiff North
Cardiff West
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Delyn
Gower
Newport West
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Brecon and Radnorshire
Monmouth
Alyn and Deeside,
Cardiff South and Penarth
Newport East
Plaid Cymru will have five (re-gaining Anglesey and Cardigan - but not advancing into new territory)
Arfon
Ceredigion
Ynys Mon
Dwyfor Meirion
Carmarthen East & Deinefwr
The Liberal Democrats will be reduced to two
Cardiff Central
Montgomeryshire
Peoples Voice will hold on to Blaenau Gwent
Leaving Labour with just 14 seats!
I can't see it happening myself.
I suspect that half of the predicted "gains" will be near misses for the Tories, as supporters of the three non Tory parties shift allegiance to the best placed non Tory candidate (probably Labour)
I reckon that Plaid can gain Aberconwy and Llanelli, giving them seven, with a bit of hard work and a lot of bottle Caerffili and Cwm Cynon could be in Plaid's grasp - but highly unlikely.
The weird thing is that listening to people on the street, I get the feeling that Labour is losing support because of its failure to address issues of social democracy and the left:
High energy costs for the old and the poor, the 10p tax rate for poorer workers, a lack of respect for civil liberties, not saving public services such as the Post office, allowing free markets to cripple the economy etc.
If Labour was more left wing and more social democratic it would be more popular!
In these circumstances the Liberal Democrats and Plaid should be making hay. Polls should be suggesting that both parties would be looking at double figure gains in Wales with a Tory wipe out.
The fact that the people of Wales see the Tory's as their saviour in the face of Labour failure is an indictment of both Plaid and the Lib Dems. These are the parties that pissed off Labour voters have felt comfortable to support in the past. Both must ask themselves why they are being passed over in favour of the Hairy Arsed Tory Monster in Wales? The monster that Wales last gave majority support to in Westminster in 1832!
If Plaid's left cant make a forcible case for left of centre social democratic nationalism in the present political climate then it may as well give up, because it is never likely to have more favourable circumstances!
The alternative for the party, of course, is to ditch socialism and campaign for the center right vote that seems to be gaining ground in Wales as old style socialism breaths its last, a center right vote that Politics Home suggests is being hoovered up by the Welsh Conservatives!
13/06/2008
YouGov: individual rights and freedoms
YouGov has a panel of some 5,000 members who fill in a daily survey. Some of the questions on yesterdays survey were about individuals' rights and freedoms here are the results:
If you would like to join YouGov you can do so by clicking here.
Britain has been called a 'surveillance society' where peoples actions are routinely monitored. To what extent do you agree or disagree that Britain is a 'surveillance society'?
Strongly agree 36.7%
Agree 43.3%
Disagree 13.7%
Strongly Disagree 3.2%
Dont know 3.2%
The need for greater public security, prevention of fraud and environmental concerns has led to a range of initiatives that require the monitoring of daily activities. Which, if any, of these do initiatives do you think has or would have beneficial effects on individuals' rights and freedoms?
CCTV cameras 48.5%
ID cards 37.9%
Finger printing in schools 14.8%
Congestion charging 13.2%
Chip and Pin 53.5%
Fitting microchips in wheelie bins 4.6%
Tracking of retail purchases 7.8%
Tracking of travel patterns 9.7%
Biometric passports 40.2%
And looking at this list again, which, if any, do you think has, or would have, a negative effect on individuals' rights and freedoms?
CCTV cameras 22.7%
ID cards 39.7.9%
Finger printing in schools 55.7%
Congestion charging 41.6%
Chip and Pin 7.2%%
Fitting microchips in wheelie bins 66.8%
Tracking of retail purchases 62.8%
Tracking of travel patterns 58%
Biometric passports 24.1%
A few local councils have been randomly selecting household rubbish bins as part of a study to find out how much food people throw away. Householders were told about the search after it had been carried out and issued with replacement bins. Which of these statements do you most agree with?
This was an invasion of privacy and should not have been allowed 66.5%
The study will provide important data on how much food people really are wasting and was worth the small invasion of privacy 23.4%
Neither of these 7.6%
If you would like to join YouGov you can do so by clicking here.
28/02/2008
The Referendum Lie
Much excitement on the BBC about the latest devolution opinion poll commissioned by the Corporation. Rather than cause me excitement however the poll leaves me in despair.
Because of the failings of previous Welsh opinion polls supporters of devolution are using polls that show a lead, but not a substantial lead, to play into the hands of the opponents of devolution. Devolutionists will not demand a referendum until the polls show substantially more support for further powers than those polls in 1997 that predicted more than 60% support for devolution. This is silly, an inaccurate poll is an inaccurate poll, and if today's poll showed 75% support for further powers it still couldn't be relied on. Those who want opinion polls to predict the best time to hold a referendum should be campaigning for more accurate polls rather than being panicked by inaccurate ones.
The whole referendum issue is, of course, a farce. Those Labour and Lib Dem MPs who stood in the last Westminster election insisting that a referendum should be held on the European constitution but who have now ditched that commitment are blatant hypocrites for insisting that a further devolution referendum is still necessary. A referendum on the Government of Wales Act would not have anything like the constitutional implications of the Lisbon Treaty. Indeed if a referendum was held tomorrow and was heavily defeated it wouldn't prevent the Assembly from acquiring all of the powers offered in the GoW Act over time through the LCO system.
The thing that caused me the most despair, however, was that the BBC and the political pundits insist on peddling the lie that a referendum will put the Assembly on a par with the Scottish Parliament, Betsan Powys' reports even suggested that the question asked in the poll mentioned Scottish Powers. The Government of Wales Act offers the Assembly fewer than a fifth of the limited powers that Scotland has - politicians and broadcasters who claim otherwise are deliberately deceiving the public.
Because of the failings of previous Welsh opinion polls supporters of devolution are using polls that show a lead, but not a substantial lead, to play into the hands of the opponents of devolution. Devolutionists will not demand a referendum until the polls show substantially more support for further powers than those polls in 1997 that predicted more than 60% support for devolution. This is silly, an inaccurate poll is an inaccurate poll, and if today's poll showed 75% support for further powers it still couldn't be relied on. Those who want opinion polls to predict the best time to hold a referendum should be campaigning for more accurate polls rather than being panicked by inaccurate ones.
The whole referendum issue is, of course, a farce. Those Labour and Lib Dem MPs who stood in the last Westminster election insisting that a referendum should be held on the European constitution but who have now ditched that commitment are blatant hypocrites for insisting that a further devolution referendum is still necessary. A referendum on the Government of Wales Act would not have anything like the constitutional implications of the Lisbon Treaty. Indeed if a referendum was held tomorrow and was heavily defeated it wouldn't prevent the Assembly from acquiring all of the powers offered in the GoW Act over time through the LCO system.
The thing that caused me the most despair, however, was that the BBC and the political pundits insist on peddling the lie that a referendum will put the Assembly on a par with the Scottish Parliament, Betsan Powys' reports even suggested that the question asked in the poll mentioned Scottish Powers. The Government of Wales Act offers the Assembly fewer than a fifth of the limited powers that Scotland has - politicians and broadcasters who claim otherwise are deliberately deceiving the public.
18/09/2007
Devoloution MAX
The Institute of Welsh Affairs poll on attitudes to Devolution gives lots of food for thought.
One of the most interesting things about it is that it isn't a Welsh opinion poll of the usual (crap) type that we know and love in Wales. The institute has been tracking Welsh opinion on a regular basis since 1997. Even if the IWA poll has the same huge margin of error that other Welsh polls have shown, the trends that it measures should still be reliable.
Only the 1997 and 2007 results were released in the press, the intervening results were made known on the Datganoli programme on S4C this evening. I didn't make a note of them so I hope that they will be published in full in tomorrow's papers.
I have made no secret of the fact that my preferred option is independence. I was pleased to see that support for independence has remained fairly constant over the last 10 years, hovering around the 11 to 15% mark. Given that (a few blogs apart) there has been no real campaign for independence (even Plaid hasn't really campaigned on the issue, Plaid has taken the evolution of devolution route), it is pleasing to see that devolution hasn't killed off independence as a legitimate view, as some hoped / feared that it might do.
Dr Richard Wyn Jones claimed in tonight's programme that the poll tracking has shown a seismic shift in attitudes towards devolution. I disagree. I agree with Penddu, that the polls don't show that much change of opinion. If you split the 1997 result between those who wanted the status quo and those who wanted devolution and compare them with those who want the new status quo (or reversion) now and those who want more than the present settlement the figures have remained the same thorough the last 10 years.
The term used for enhanced powers for the National Assembly, that the majority now appears to support, is a Scottish Type Parliament. The Scots have had a very Scottish Type Parliament for the last 10 years, and have found it deficient. About the same number of Scots who supported devolution 10 years ago now support enhanced devolution for Scotland. Either Independence or what is called Devolution Max.
If Scottish type powers for the very Scottish type people of Scotland have proved, after 10 years, to be deficient then a Scottish type parliament is hardly going to be good enough for the Welsh type people of Wales!
Its almost a foregone conclusion that in a few years time, having gained Scottish type powers, Wales will be in the same situation that Scotland is now. So why shouldn't Wales skip that step, and go for Devolution Max, with Scotland in 2011?
One of the most interesting things about it is that it isn't a Welsh opinion poll of the usual (crap) type that we know and love in Wales. The institute has been tracking Welsh opinion on a regular basis since 1997. Even if the IWA poll has the same huge margin of error that other Welsh polls have shown, the trends that it measures should still be reliable.
Only the 1997 and 2007 results were released in the press, the intervening results were made known on the Datganoli programme on S4C this evening. I didn't make a note of them so I hope that they will be published in full in tomorrow's papers.
I have made no secret of the fact that my preferred option is independence. I was pleased to see that support for independence has remained fairly constant over the last 10 years, hovering around the 11 to 15% mark. Given that (a few blogs apart) there has been no real campaign for independence (even Plaid hasn't really campaigned on the issue, Plaid has taken the evolution of devolution route), it is pleasing to see that devolution hasn't killed off independence as a legitimate view, as some hoped / feared that it might do.
Dr Richard Wyn Jones claimed in tonight's programme that the poll tracking has shown a seismic shift in attitudes towards devolution. I disagree. I agree with Penddu, that the polls don't show that much change of opinion. If you split the 1997 result between those who wanted the status quo and those who wanted devolution and compare them with those who want the new status quo (or reversion) now and those who want more than the present settlement the figures have remained the same thorough the last 10 years.
The term used for enhanced powers for the National Assembly, that the majority now appears to support, is a Scottish Type Parliament. The Scots have had a very Scottish Type Parliament for the last 10 years, and have found it deficient. About the same number of Scots who supported devolution 10 years ago now support enhanced devolution for Scotland. Either Independence or what is called Devolution Max.
If Scottish type powers for the very Scottish type people of Scotland have proved, after 10 years, to be deficient then a Scottish type parliament is hardly going to be good enough for the Welsh type people of Wales!
Its almost a foregone conclusion that in a few years time, having gained Scottish type powers, Wales will be in the same situation that Scotland is now. So why shouldn't Wales skip that step, and go for Devolution Max, with Scotland in 2011?
10/09/2007
New opinion poll on the way
S4C are advertising a programme on the History of Devolution fronted by Dr Richard Wyn Jones and to be shown on the channel next Monday. Apparently the programme will include an opinion poll showing what the people of Wales think of Devolution so far and where we want to go next.
12/05/2007
The Wigley and Ryder Nonsense
The amount of crap that has been written on blogs, in magazines and in newspapers over the last few days about Dafydd Wigley and Janet Ryder is incredible. That much of it has come from people who claim to support Plaid is unforgivable. These stories and the nonsensical comments that support them do nothing but hand feed those who wish to harm Plaid Cymru and the national movement. They create division where none exist and create unneeded bad feeling amongst supporters of the national cause
If Dafydd Wigley, as an individual, or Plaid Cymru as an organisation wanted to ensure the re-election of Wigley to the current Assembly there were better ways of doing so than standing him on the North Wales Regional list.
Owen John Thomas had made known his intention of retiring from his seat on the South Wales Central list, there was nothing stopping Wigley from trying for this vacant slot. Janet Davies had also indicated her intention of retiring; if Plaid wished to make an exception to its women first rule to facilitate Wigley's return, South West Wales was clearly the best region in which to make such an exception. If Wigley had wanted to stand for the Aberconwy constituency he would have won the nomination and Gareth Jones would have been happy to stand aside to facilitate his nomination. A bigger gamble, but not as much of a gamble as 2nd place on the northern list would have been for Wigley to stand as candidate in Clwyd West.
Ensuring Wigley's election wasn't part of the plan when it was decided to put him in 2nd place on the North Wales list. Following the disastrous election results of 2003 and 2005, there was a genuine worry amongst Plaid's leaders that Ieuan Wyn might lose his Ynys Môn constituency. If this had happened bitter internal wrangling over the leadership question would have weakened an electorally weakened Plaid group further. If, however, Wigley had been elected as a consolation for a losing Anglesey, then that bitter wrangling would be avoided, because Wigley would become the natural leader, and the Plaid group would be able to start building for the future.
Of course if Wigley had gone for one of the safer alternatives of getting elected, he would still have been in the Bay to step in if a disaster had hit the party on the Island, but this path was purposely and conscientiously avoided by the party and by Wigley himself, for a good reason. If Wigley and Ieuan Wyn had both been elected the new Assembly would have began with a divisive leadership debate. If Wigley had been elected the muck that is now being aimed at Janet Ryder would have been aimed instead at IWJ and Plaid would have found itself in the same mire as the Lib Dems now find themselves.
Plaid had a plan when it put Wigley on the north Wales list, a plan that has worked, so far, are disgruntled party members about to derail that plan by vilifying Janet Ryder?
CYMRAEG Hen Rech Flin: Nonsens Wigley a Ryder
Links:
Western Mail - Blog Vaughan - Blamerbell - Labour Mark - Sanddef - Peter Black AM - Cymru Mark - Brit Nat Watch
If Dafydd Wigley, as an individual, or Plaid Cymru as an organisation wanted to ensure the re-election of Wigley to the current Assembly there were better ways of doing so than standing him on the North Wales Regional list.
Owen John Thomas had made known his intention of retiring from his seat on the South Wales Central list, there was nothing stopping Wigley from trying for this vacant slot. Janet Davies had also indicated her intention of retiring; if Plaid wished to make an exception to its women first rule to facilitate Wigley's return, South West Wales was clearly the best region in which to make such an exception. If Wigley had wanted to stand for the Aberconwy constituency he would have won the nomination and Gareth Jones would have been happy to stand aside to facilitate his nomination. A bigger gamble, but not as much of a gamble as 2nd place on the northern list would have been for Wigley to stand as candidate in Clwyd West.
Ensuring Wigley's election wasn't part of the plan when it was decided to put him in 2nd place on the North Wales list. Following the disastrous election results of 2003 and 2005, there was a genuine worry amongst Plaid's leaders that Ieuan Wyn might lose his Ynys Môn constituency. If this had happened bitter internal wrangling over the leadership question would have weakened an electorally weakened Plaid group further. If, however, Wigley had been elected as a consolation for a losing Anglesey, then that bitter wrangling would be avoided, because Wigley would become the natural leader, and the Plaid group would be able to start building for the future.
Of course if Wigley had gone for one of the safer alternatives of getting elected, he would still have been in the Bay to step in if a disaster had hit the party on the Island, but this path was purposely and conscientiously avoided by the party and by Wigley himself, for a good reason. If Wigley and Ieuan Wyn had both been elected the new Assembly would have began with a divisive leadership debate. If Wigley had been elected the muck that is now being aimed at Janet Ryder would have been aimed instead at IWJ and Plaid would have found itself in the same mire as the Lib Dems now find themselves.
Plaid had a plan when it put Wigley on the north Wales list, a plan that has worked, so far, are disgruntled party members about to derail that plan by vilifying Janet Ryder?
CYMRAEG Hen Rech Flin: Nonsens Wigley a Ryder
Links:
Western Mail - Blog Vaughan - Blamerbell - Labour Mark - Sanddef - Peter Black AM - Cymru Mark - Brit Nat Watch
10/05/2007
An all-Wales list?
Vaughan Roderick made a post on his blog yesterday about the list system. In the post he suggested that one of the ways of doing away with some of the vagaries of the list system would be to have one all Wales list rather than five regional lists. Vaughan claims that a single list would make the list more proportional.
Vaughan isn't the first person to suggest this; the Greens have advocated an all Wales list for many years. Many have commentated the folly of having regions based on European Parliamentary constituencies that no longer exist.
I have worries about a single list, however. Our MEP's are chosen on an all Wales basis. Needles to say they are all from the south. The current list system gives a very poor geographical spread of representatives in its present form. None of the North Wales list members live in the west of the region. With the loss of Glyn Davies and Lisa Francis none of the current regional members for Mid and West Wales are from the Mid bit.
The map shows the concentration (in red) of the areas where list members are based; the blue bit shows how much of Wales doesn’t have a local list member. If we had an all Wales list I fear that the blue bit would be grater and that the red bit would be concentrated around a ten-mile radius of Cardiff. Too many people in north and mid Wales feel alienated from the Assembly now. An all-Wales list with a Cardiff centric bias would add to that feeling of alienation.
Vaughan isn't the first person to suggest this; the Greens have advocated an all Wales list for many years. Many have commentated the folly of having regions based on European Parliamentary constituencies that no longer exist.
I have worries about a single list, however. Our MEP's are chosen on an all Wales basis. Needles to say they are all from the south. The current list system gives a very poor geographical spread of representatives in its present form. None of the North Wales list members live in the west of the region. With the loss of Glyn Davies and Lisa Francis none of the current regional members for Mid and West Wales are from the Mid bit.
The map shows the concentration (in red) of the areas where list members are based; the blue bit shows how much of Wales doesn’t have a local list member. If we had an all Wales list I fear that the blue bit would be grater and that the red bit would be concentrated around a ten-mile radius of Cardiff. Too many people in north and mid Wales feel alienated from the Assembly now. An all-Wales list with a Cardiff centric bias would add to that feeling of alienation.
09/05/2007
A Directly Elected First Minister?
There is a very vitriolic attack on the Liberal Democrats by Simon Jenkins in today's Guardian, in which he suggests that the Liberal Democrats are the flotsam of 20th-century politics drifting on into the 21st and suggesting that the best thing that the party could do is disband, to fold their tent and go.
On the whole the article is an illogical rant by somebody who clearly has an axe to grind with the Lib Dems, but it does contain one interesting observation. Commenting on the way that the Lib Dems are refusing to go into coalition with either the Labour Party or the National Parties in Scotland and Wales (at the moment at least) Jenkins suggests that it would be better if the First Ministers were elected in the same way as the London Mayor or the President of France
I quite like this idea. France and London use slightly different ways of deciding who the winner is, but they are both a variation on a theme that leaves two candidates in a run off in which the one who gains more than half the vote gets elected.
The intriguing thing is what would happen if such a system were used in Wales?
If the run-off were Labour-Plaid, who would the Tories support? The Unionist Labour party or Plaid in order to beat the Labour archenemy.
If the run off was Labour-Conservative who would Plaid support? Would they also want to Kick Labour into touch as one of their election posters declared or would they vote for anything that wasn't blue, even a Labour FM?
On the whole the article is an illogical rant by somebody who clearly has an axe to grind with the Lib Dems, but it does contain one interesting observation. Commenting on the way that the Lib Dems are refusing to go into coalition with either the Labour Party or the National Parties in Scotland and Wales (at the moment at least) Jenkins suggests that it would be better if the First Ministers were elected in the same way as the London Mayor or the President of France
It is a tragedy that in Scotland and Wales the executive is chosen from the parliament, as at Westminster, but from one composed by PR, thus virtually ensuring rolling coalitions. This was instead of the London option of a separate executive and assembly, which is the constitutional basis of devolved government almost everywhere. Scotland and Wales should have had directly elected first ministers, with proportionately elected assemblies to check them. This would have met the requirement for a strong government in Edinburgh and Cardiff and for proportional representation in the balancing parliament/assembly.
I quite like this idea. France and London use slightly different ways of deciding who the winner is, but they are both a variation on a theme that leaves two candidates in a run off in which the one who gains more than half the vote gets elected.
The intriguing thing is what would happen if such a system were used in Wales?
If the run-off were Labour-Plaid, who would the Tories support? The Unionist Labour party or Plaid in order to beat the Labour archenemy.
If the run off was Labour-Conservative who would Plaid support? Would they also want to Kick Labour into touch as one of their election posters declared or would they vote for anything that wasn't blue, even a Labour FM?
05/05/2007
Congratulations Mebyon Kernow
The SNP was not the only national party to gain more seats than Labour in Thursday's election round. In the Cornish district elections Labour managed to pick up just four seats in comparison to MK's seven. MK actually gained two more seats in Cornwall than UKIP gained in England.
A full account of how Mebyon Kernow faired can be seen in the comments section of my earlier post.
Thanks to Mike Chappell of http://www.cornishnotenglish.com for sharing the details.
A full account of how Mebyon Kernow faired can be seen in the comments section of my earlier post.
Thanks to Mike Chappell of http://www.cornishnotenglish.com for sharing the details.
06/04/2007
Lies, Damned Lies and Welsh Polls
HTV has published an opinion poll on the forthcoming assembly elections. I shan't comment on its contents because the only thing one can say about Welsh opinion polls is that they are consistently wrong.
For example HTV commissioned a poll in February 1999, just before the May Assembly elections of that year. The poll predicted:
Lab 58%
PC 12%
Con 20%
LD 9%
The election result was
Labour 36.5% (wrong by -21.5%)
PC 29.5% (wrong by + 17.5%)
Con 16.1% (wrong by - 3.9%)
LD 13% (wrong by + 4%)
A much more inclusive poll was commissioned before the 2003 election. Because it was more inclusive it was more expensive and the cost of commissioning it was shared between HTV the BBC and S4C. Being a more inclusive poll it was better than the 1999 effort by HTV alone, but it still failed the + or - 3% test of a scientific poll.
Poll result:
Lab 39%
PC 31%
Con 15%
LD 15%
Election result
Lab 37% (wrong by - 2%)
Plaid 20% (wrong by -11%)
Con 19% (wrong by + 4%)
LD 11% (wrong by - 3%)
The current offering from HTV is similar to the 1999 poll, so one can expect it to be as inaccurate as that poll was.
UK wide opinion polls are fairly accurate; they are conducted according to a scientific discipline called psephology. Psephologists look at the make up of an electoral community and poll people by selecting respondents who reflect that balance. They try to create a gender balance, age balance, education balance, social class balance, earnings balance etc. that is the same as the balance of the electorate.
Because of a lack of regular opinion polling in Wales there is no such thing as Welsh psephology. Wales is not a microcosm of the UK it is a completely different place, one needs different polling methods in Wales than those used in the UK to get an accurate picture of voting intentions.
In comparing the two opinion polls the most outstanding factor is how wrong the Plaid result is in both. Grossly underestimated in 1999, badly over estimated in 2003. This is because UK based psephology just can't account for the Plaid vote (even if Plaid won every single vote in Wales it would be a minuscule 4% of the UK wide vote). The way UK psephology deals with Plaid is to ignore the party. If Plaid has 4 seats after a general election - UK polls will show it having the same four seats through out the period leading up to the next election - no matter what the political climate in Wales. Which is fine on an UK basis, a few Plaid gains or loses are unlikely to impact much on the overall result of a Westminster election.
Because UK psephological standards are used to conduct Welsh polls, Plaid always stands still in Welsh polls too!!!
HTV's poll today, like the 1999 poll (where Plaid's result reflects its 1997 UK election vote) and the 2003 poll (where Plaid's vote is similar to its 1999 Assembly vote) puts Plaid on no change by % or seats won - which doesn't make sense. If Labour loses 4% of its vote (as the poll suggests) and Plaid stands still Plaid must gain at least 2 more seats.
For Wales see England doesn't work in psephology any more than it works in any other discipline. An opinion poll based on a for Wales see England attitude to polling is a waste of the poll commissioner's money.
My advice to all parties in response to HTV's poll is - ignore it, it's bollocks!
Other Bloggs on HTV's poll include:
Glyn Davies Predictable Poll
Blamerbell Briefs: Poll says Labour set for assembly election losses
Chanticleer: The first poll
e-clectig: Pol Piniwn
Ordovicius: Fudged Poll to Frighten Faithful?
Iain Dale's Diary: Tories Set to Become Largest Opposition Party in Wales
Live from the Socialist Fortress: Straw Poll: hands up if you learnt something new today
Peter Black AM: Ebbs and tides
Alun Cairns
For example HTV commissioned a poll in February 1999, just before the May Assembly elections of that year. The poll predicted:
Lab 58%
PC 12%
Con 20%
LD 9%
The election result was
Labour 36.5% (wrong by -21.5%)
PC 29.5% (wrong by + 17.5%)
Con 16.1% (wrong by - 3.9%)
LD 13% (wrong by + 4%)
A much more inclusive poll was commissioned before the 2003 election. Because it was more inclusive it was more expensive and the cost of commissioning it was shared between HTV the BBC and S4C. Being a more inclusive poll it was better than the 1999 effort by HTV alone, but it still failed the + or - 3% test of a scientific poll.
Poll result:
Lab 39%
PC 31%
Con 15%
LD 15%
Election result
Lab 37% (wrong by - 2%)
Plaid 20% (wrong by -11%)
Con 19% (wrong by + 4%)
LD 11% (wrong by - 3%)
The current offering from HTV is similar to the 1999 poll, so one can expect it to be as inaccurate as that poll was.
UK wide opinion polls are fairly accurate; they are conducted according to a scientific discipline called psephology. Psephologists look at the make up of an electoral community and poll people by selecting respondents who reflect that balance. They try to create a gender balance, age balance, education balance, social class balance, earnings balance etc. that is the same as the balance of the electorate.
Because of a lack of regular opinion polling in Wales there is no such thing as Welsh psephology. Wales is not a microcosm of the UK it is a completely different place, one needs different polling methods in Wales than those used in the UK to get an accurate picture of voting intentions.
In comparing the two opinion polls the most outstanding factor is how wrong the Plaid result is in both. Grossly underestimated in 1999, badly over estimated in 2003. This is because UK based psephology just can't account for the Plaid vote (even if Plaid won every single vote in Wales it would be a minuscule 4% of the UK wide vote). The way UK psephology deals with Plaid is to ignore the party. If Plaid has 4 seats after a general election - UK polls will show it having the same four seats through out the period leading up to the next election - no matter what the political climate in Wales. Which is fine on an UK basis, a few Plaid gains or loses are unlikely to impact much on the overall result of a Westminster election.
Because UK psephological standards are used to conduct Welsh polls, Plaid always stands still in Welsh polls too!!!
HTV's poll today, like the 1999 poll (where Plaid's result reflects its 1997 UK election vote) and the 2003 poll (where Plaid's vote is similar to its 1999 Assembly vote) puts Plaid on no change by % or seats won - which doesn't make sense. If Labour loses 4% of its vote (as the poll suggests) and Plaid stands still Plaid must gain at least 2 more seats.
For Wales see England doesn't work in psephology any more than it works in any other discipline. An opinion poll based on a for Wales see England attitude to polling is a waste of the poll commissioner's money.
My advice to all parties in response to HTV's poll is - ignore it, it's bollocks!
Other Bloggs on HTV's poll include:
Glyn Davies Predictable Poll
Blamerbell Briefs: Poll says Labour set for assembly election losses
Chanticleer: The first poll
e-clectig: Pol Piniwn
Ordovicius: Fudged Poll to Frighten Faithful?
Iain Dale's Diary: Tories Set to Become Largest Opposition Party in Wales
Live from the Socialist Fortress: Straw Poll: hands up if you learnt something new today
Peter Black AM: Ebbs and tides
Alun Cairns
27/02/2007
Assembly Election Predictions
Others have been trying to predict the results of the May elections, so I have decided to join in the fun.
The Independent Candidates. Loses 1 (1)
I foresee John Mareck keeping his seat in Wrexham but Trish Law losing hers in Blaenau Gwent. I don't think that Ron Davies in Caerphilly or People's Voice in Torfaen have a hope of winning.
Polish people are fairly new to the concept of democracy, so new that they value the right to vote and are highly likely to use their vote. There is a strong Polish community in Wrexham and John Mareck has been vigorously courting its vote. The Polish vote may be enough to save him by the seat of his pants. Trish Law has proved herself to be an acceptable constituency AM, but she faces two problems in May. Firstly that Plaid, Conservative and Lib Dem voters who have lent her and her late husband their votes are likely to return to their traditional folds. Secondly, and more importantly, the bad publicity given to Dai Davies' record in Westminster is going to send many of Mrs Law's old supporters back to Labour
The Liberal Democrats. Gains 2 (8)
I can't see the Lib Dems winning any additional constituency seats. The antics of the local MP may actually put Montgomeryshire within the grasp of the Conservatives, but I suspect that Mick Bates will scrape his way back to the Senedd by the skin of his teeth. The Lib Dems have a theoretical chance of winning up to four new list seats if the Tories do extremely well in the elections, but I am going to compromise and give them just two of the four
The Conservative Party. Gains 1 (12)
This is the most difficult party to forecast. At the moment 10 of the Tories' 11 seats are list based. There is no doubt, that in May, the party will win many more constituency seats. The difficulty arises from trying to forecast the effects that wining constituencies will have on current list member numbers.
If they did exceptionally well nine constituencies are within the Tories' grasp and they could win them all and still have four list seats, which would give them a total of a measly 13 seats.
If the Conservatives won an extra 8 constituencies it would be a fantastic result for them, a fantastic result that would not be reflected in the number of seats won. I doubt that the Conservatives will win all of their target seats (few parties do) some will be lost by a hairs breadth. Whatever the result the Conservatives are going to lose two list seats to Labour. I foresee an "academically" brilliant election night for the Tories, but a "practically" bad one with only one extra Assembly seat as a reward for their successes.
Plaid Cymru Gains 7 (19)
I can't see Plaid losing any of its constituency seats (although keeping Ynys Môn from the Tories will be tight). Aberconwy is within Plaid's grasp, but I tend to think that the Tories will have it; gaining Wigley on the list will be a good enough consolation prize for most Plaid supporters in losing Gareth Jones in the constituency. Plaid will win in Llanelli, but as happened in 1999 this will result in a list seat for Labour at the Tories expense. Plaid Cymru is probably the only party that can increase the number of both list and constituency seats, I suspect that this will happen. Cwm Cynnon, Caerphilly and another two valleys seats will be won by Plaid, they will also win two extra list seats. My prediction is 19 seats for Plaid
The Labour Party Loses 9 (20)
Its going to be a bad night for Labour, but as I've allready forcast who will win 40 of the seats, all that is needed is a sum to prdict Labour's result 60-40 = 20
So here is the MOF's prediction:
Labour 20; Plaid Cymru 19; Conservatives 12; Lib Dems 8; Independents 1.
Cymraeg Hen Rech Flin: Proffwydo Canlyniadau Mai
The Independent Candidates. Loses 1 (1)
I foresee John Mareck keeping his seat in Wrexham but Trish Law losing hers in Blaenau Gwent. I don't think that Ron Davies in Caerphilly or People's Voice in Torfaen have a hope of winning.
Polish people are fairly new to the concept of democracy, so new that they value the right to vote and are highly likely to use their vote. There is a strong Polish community in Wrexham and John Mareck has been vigorously courting its vote. The Polish vote may be enough to save him by the seat of his pants. Trish Law has proved herself to be an acceptable constituency AM, but she faces two problems in May. Firstly that Plaid, Conservative and Lib Dem voters who have lent her and her late husband their votes are likely to return to their traditional folds. Secondly, and more importantly, the bad publicity given to Dai Davies' record in Westminster is going to send many of Mrs Law's old supporters back to Labour
The Liberal Democrats. Gains 2 (8)
I can't see the Lib Dems winning any additional constituency seats. The antics of the local MP may actually put Montgomeryshire within the grasp of the Conservatives, but I suspect that Mick Bates will scrape his way back to the Senedd by the skin of his teeth. The Lib Dems have a theoretical chance of winning up to four new list seats if the Tories do extremely well in the elections, but I am going to compromise and give them just two of the four
The Conservative Party. Gains 1 (12)
This is the most difficult party to forecast. At the moment 10 of the Tories' 11 seats are list based. There is no doubt, that in May, the party will win many more constituency seats. The difficulty arises from trying to forecast the effects that wining constituencies will have on current list member numbers.
If they did exceptionally well nine constituencies are within the Tories' grasp and they could win them all and still have four list seats, which would give them a total of a measly 13 seats.
If the Conservatives won an extra 8 constituencies it would be a fantastic result for them, a fantastic result that would not be reflected in the number of seats won. I doubt that the Conservatives will win all of their target seats (few parties do) some will be lost by a hairs breadth. Whatever the result the Conservatives are going to lose two list seats to Labour. I foresee an "academically" brilliant election night for the Tories, but a "practically" bad one with only one extra Assembly seat as a reward for their successes.
Plaid Cymru Gains 7 (19)
I can't see Plaid losing any of its constituency seats (although keeping Ynys Môn from the Tories will be tight). Aberconwy is within Plaid's grasp, but I tend to think that the Tories will have it; gaining Wigley on the list will be a good enough consolation prize for most Plaid supporters in losing Gareth Jones in the constituency. Plaid will win in Llanelli, but as happened in 1999 this will result in a list seat for Labour at the Tories expense. Plaid Cymru is probably the only party that can increase the number of both list and constituency seats, I suspect that this will happen. Cwm Cynnon, Caerphilly and another two valleys seats will be won by Plaid, they will also win two extra list seats. My prediction is 19 seats for Plaid
The Labour Party Loses 9 (20)
Its going to be a bad night for Labour, but as I've allready forcast who will win 40 of the seats, all that is needed is a sum to prdict Labour's result 60-40 = 20
So here is the MOF's prediction:
Labour 20; Plaid Cymru 19; Conservatives 12; Lib Dems 8; Independents 1.
Cymraeg Hen Rech Flin: Proffwydo Canlyniadau Mai
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