Election Launch Site?

Whatever you think about the party, its policies or it's personalities, hardly anyone can disagree that the SNP is the winner of the battle to make a manifesto launch in the most stunning location.

The Edinburgh International Climbing Arena, has had millions of pounds worth of free publicity by the world's media gathering there to report on what's included in the SNP Manifesto. That makes me wonder why the Welsh parties didn't have a similar vision?

Think of the impact that Leanne could have had by publishing her policies at 100 MPH in Zip World, imagine Carwyn bouncing Labour policies in Bounce Below, or Andrew RT publishing his policies in the fitting setting of the Dinosaurs of Tan yr Ogof, or Nick Clegg launching his party's manifesto in an iconic Welsh venue that might be big enough to hold next year's LibDem conference:

Move over Nick

In a comment on the Syniadau blog Welsh Agenda notes that in their recent party Election Broadcast the Conservatives featured David Cameron but there was no sign of Nick Bourne.

I received the postal election address from Janet Finch-Saunders, Aberconwy's Conservative candidate this morning. It contained the compulsory picture with Cameron, but look who seems to be standing in for Nick where you would expect to see a picture of the candidate with her Assembly leader! Paul Davies. So who will be leading the Conservatives in the Bay after May 6th?

Is there something that the Tories have forgotten to tell us?

Poems and Politics "For those in Peril on the Sea" - William Whiting

A prayer for those whose lives are to be endangered by the latest cost cutting exercise from the heartless bastards in the Con-Dem Government who put money before humanity.

Eternal Father strong to save
Whose arm has bound the restless wave
Who bids the mighty ocean deep
It's own appointed limits keep
O hear us when we cry to Thee
For those in Peril on the sea

Oh Christ whose voice the waters heard
And hushed their raging at Thy word
Who walkest on the foamy deep
And how amidst the storm did sleep
O hear us when we cry to Thee
For those in Peril on the sea.

Even an atheist would agree that there is a better chance that God will take more heed of the needs of those in Peril on the Sea than either Cameron or Clegg!

YouGov Health Warning

A new Welsh YouGov survey is due out before the end of this week. Apart from asking the normal tracker questions about which party one will be voting for in the next Assembly elections and how one will vote in the GoW Act referendum it also asks for responses to the Assembly budget. I expect that the budget question will be happy reading for the Welsh Conservative Party – with a huge percentage saying that Health Spending should not be cut, as per Tory group policy.

Unfortunately the question on spending cuts was leading and therefore unfair. The question asked, which ONE of the following areas of spending should NOT be cut? Followed by a list that included culture, transport, education health etc.

Respondents didn't have the opportunity to answer none of the above or to say all spending areas should be cut. The option of supporting the Assembly Governments' decision to spread the cuts across all areas wasn't on offer so respondents were "forced" to choose one area of spending that should not be cut. I would guessed that having been forced to make a choice that most would choose health, thus vindicating the Tory policy by default.

Anybody wishing to join the YouGov panel in order to be in with a chance of being a respondent in future surveys can do so by clicking HERE.

The Druid's Shame

Underhand and two faced.

Druid, you have claimed to be non aligned, to be putting Anglesey first; to be criticising Albert and Ieuan because they are the elected reps for Anglesey - and not criticising the Tories and others because they haven't been in charge in Anglesey since dinosaurs were eggs, you now declare that this is a lie.

The truth appears to be that you have been abusing your so called non-alignment in order to build up a following for your own personal and party political ambitions.

I am bitterly disappointed to discover that you are a charlatan and a fraud. Within the last couple of weeks, whilst your nomination for candidate must have been with the party hierarchy, you denied being a Tory. Why?

As you have been ashamed of admitting that you are a Conservative for the past 12 months, and taken offence at being labled as a Conservative by others, why should Anglesey's Conservatives have faith in you; never mind the wider electorate?

When you started your blog you claimed that it was a quest to get honesty and openness into the Islands politics, for which you have had my support. But it appears that you have been neither honest nor open - just a duplicitous snake in the grass. I am very disappointed.

Needed –an independent Devo Sceptic Tory Monkey for Aberconwy!

Assembly opponents amongst Aberconwy's Conservatives are so disappointed by the Assembly candidate chosen for their party in an open primary that they are threatening to put up an alternative candidate to oppose her.

Inspired by Hartlepool's election of H'Angus the Monkey, they are threatening to set up a Facerbook campaign to try and find a similar candidate for Aberconwy. Although I agree that Janet Finch-Saunders isn't the best candidate to represent the Conservative interest in Aberconwy I hadn't considered her to be particularly supportive of Welsh devolution.

If disaffected Conservatives want to find an independent devo-sceptic monkey to split the Conservative vote in Aberconwy, good luck to them in their quest – it can only help Gareth Jones' chances of re-election!

Plaid's Living Wage should be supported by both Right and Left!

During the last election Plaid Cymru proposed two policies that I would have expected every decent person to support. The first was for a fair pension, the second was for a living wage rather than a minimum wage. Both policies were opposed and ridiculed, not because they were bad policies, but because they were policies suggested by the wrong party.

I don't understand what the Labour Party has against the idea of a living wage. Surely such an idea should be a core Labour principal!

I don't understand why a Conservative should oppose such an idea either.

If an employee has less than a living wage s/he becomes a burden on the state, and has to have topup benefits out of the state's purse to give her/him a wage – his/her job is subsidies by the tax payer in the same way as his/her unemployment would be subsidised – what's the difference?.

If a person works his or her guts off for 60 hours a week but still needs state benefits to make ends meet, who is the scrounger? The mean employer, or the hard working employee?

There is nothing Conservative in underpaying an employee because you know that the benefit cheque will take up the slack in the wage bill.

The benefits bill needs to be reduced, without a doubt, but it needs to be reduced in a way that looks at the full picture.

I can't see a Socialist or Conservative value that should oppose Plaid's living wage, idea, so why don't both parties welcome Plaid's suggestion as part of the answer to a very big problem, rather than opposing it for opposition's sake just because it is a Plaid proposal?

An austerity conundrum

In these days of austerity and tightening of the public belt the ConDem Westminster government tells us that there is a need to cut all sorts of costs out of public service provision in order to reduce costs and to provide better services for less money. A very laudable ideal that many will support.

But yet, when the Plaid /Labour coalition spends less per head on education, or on health or on social services than is spent per head in England the Assembly Government is accused of short changing the people of Wales and of underfunding services in Wales by Conservatives and Liberal Democrats!

I can't understand this!

If we need to cut public service costs why isn't the Westminster Government looking at the Plaid/ Labour Government in Cardiff and saying Wales has proved that you can deliver a decent education for £xxx per pupil less than is spent in England etc rather than the same parties who want to reduce spend per pupil / patient / service user in England complaining that the spend per person isn't as much in Wales as is, according to their own mantra, overspent per head in England?

Who are the benefit scroungers who rip off Housing Benefit?

Who are the benefit scroungers who rip off Housing Benefit?

Obviously, the people to whom the multi billion pound benefit is paid!

But who it is actually paid to?

Despite what the Daily Hate Mail says, the benefit is not paid to unwaged people who live in rented accommodation, it is actually paid to the owners of the rented properties, some of whom are very rich individuals and most of whom make a killing from their property portfolios.

It is still possible to buy a 3 bedroom house in my area for £150K, a 25 year mortgage on such a property would be approximately £800 pcm. If we forget the 13th month for the sake of simplicity, that's £200 per week. Even with Cameron's cap on housing benefit a landlord can still scrounge a 100% profit out of a buy to let housing benefit house bought today, a good investment.

As time goes by house prices rise and rents rise too. Mortgage costs fluctuate but not by a huge amount. So if I had bought a house for £60k 12 years ago my mortgage repayments would now be about £250 pcm, £65 a week and I could be scrounging a 400% state profit from my investment, without taking into account the increased value of the initial investment. If my investment term was coming to its end I would probably be paying a mortgage of about £10 a week – and still be getting £400 per week rent – nice work if you can get it!

Many of the homes that are being rented for these giddy profits are former council houses, many of the people for whom the rents are being paid are the people who would have been housed by councils in days gone by - if the council housing stock hadn't been sold off.

Council House / Housing Association rents in this area are about £70 a week.

It is not rampant socialism or un-conservative to suggest that if the state is paying for housing the poorest in our communities that the state should get the best bang for its bucks. Paying Rachman type landlords to become multi millionaires from state benefits is not good stewardship of the public purse.

The £11 billion paid in housing benefit each year would build a hell of a lot of social housing. Using it to provide social housing would be the best economic answer to this part of the benefit overspend.

Has the Tory Press Murdered a ConDem Deal?

The bitter vitriol being poured on Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in today's Tory Supporting Papers is incredible

The Sun:
NOW we see the Lib Dems for what they are... double-crossing, two-faced shysters who would sell their mothers for political gain.

Daily Mail:
In public, Nick Clegg, that supposed torch carrier for the ‘new’ politics, insisted it was his duty to first hold coalition talks with a Tory party given by far the strongest mandate to govern.
In private, the man who is emerging as the Madame Fifi of British politics was soliciting for the highest bid.

Telegraph
Mr Brown’s actions may tempt us to joke about Robert Mugabe stealing an election, with Nick Clegg in the role of Morgan Tsvangarai seduced into shaking hands with the man responsible for his nation’s misfortunes.

Comments on Tory blogs are even more bitter.

I suspect that the Lib Dem conversations with Labour were intended to be just a means of bringing extra pressure to bear on the Conservative party. But the over reaction of Tory supporters to the first minor difficulty in the negotiations might have made a Lib Con pact or coalition totally unobtainable and unsustainable. The Tory press' overreaction may well have cost David Cameron the keys to No10.

Dave's Tesco Policy illustrated

On a visit to the Delyn Constituency yesterday David Cameron said that the public sector could learn a lot from the supermarket Tesco. Here are some pictures to illustrate what he meant:

For the better off

For the rest of us

Poor Guto is a bit upset

The pressure of the election seems to be getting at poor Guto Bebb.

On Pawb a'i Farn (an S4C programme similar to Question Time) last week Guto made a fool of himself. In response to a question on the MPs expenses scandal, you know the expenses scandal which involved members of his own party claiming for cleaning their moats and building a duck house, he tried to make out that fellow panellist Elfyn Llwyd was part of the scandal for claiming the parliamentary subsistence allowance. Elfyn chose to ignore him, so Guto said the same thing again, Elfyn dismissed the comments for the rubbish that they were by retorting if you say so Guto.

Unaware of how foolish his performance made him look, Guto smugly claimed on his blog that he had thrown a nuclear bomb at Elfyn. I responded to his post by leaving a comment that his so called bomb had blown up in his own face. Guto decided not to publish the comment. This is not the first time that Guto has refused to publish critical comments on his blog or to engage in any form of debate with those who disagree with him.

Guto's reluctance to engage in any debate is a shame, he use to be a regular contributor to the Welsh discussion board Maes e, where his comments were often insightful and interesting even when one disagreed with him. It also negates the whole point of blogging if one doesn't allow others to comment, and only allowing positive comments is a form of lying because it gives the false impression that all agree with one's words of wisdom.

Because of this I accused Guto of cowardice on my Hen Rech Flin blog, Guto's petulant response to my accusation can be seen here. The response is full of lies and inaccuracies.

Despite knowing that I am not a member of Plaid Cymru or any other party, and that the views I express aren't any organisation's views just my own, Guto insists on referring to me as a Plaid blogger. Guto claims that I called him a shitty coward, which I did not, if he checked with Cysgair he would find that the Welsh Word Cachgi translates as coward, dastard, rotter. Guto also claims that my comments were nasty – they were not – telling somebody that they are mistaken is actually an act of friendship not of nastiness, it enables them to avoid making the same mistake again. Of course this isn't the first time that Guto has accused me of nastiness when I have tried to be helpful to him; I was also accused of nastiness when I informed him that his leaflets weren't getting through to my part of Glan Conwy a few months ago, something that I would have expected any candidate to want to know.

If Guto cannot abide any disagreement with his point of view or any critical comment, if he fears discussion and debate has he got what it takes to be an MP? If he gets so hot under the collar because of a bit of criticism perhaps he should give up campaigning for the sake of his health.

Tories want Plaid help to block PR! Uh?

I don't buy the Financial Times, but according to Wales on Line, yesterday:

The Financial Times reported that Mr Cameron’s campaign team was exploring the possibility of a deal with unionist politicians in Northern Ireland and Scottish and Welsh nationalist MPs.
This was an attempt to avoid Liberal Democrats’ demands for electoral reform, the newspaper said.

There is nothing wrong with the Tories approaching smaller parties to see what sort of deals can be done in case they need a bit of extra support in the event of a balanced parliament, of course, but this story doesn't ring true to me.

I don't know where the northern Irish Unionist parties stand on PR but for as long as I can remember both Plaid and the SNP have been strongly in favour of electoral reform, so if Cameron came knocking on their doors asking for their support in order to avoid Liberal Democrats’ demands for electoral reform I would expect that he would find the doors slammed in his face.

This story is clearly a crock of the proverbial, worrying though that people depend on a paper that produces such fanciful reporting in order to inform their financial investment decisions.

A response to Guto

Guto Bebb said...

A rather odd posting Alwyn.
Three postings back your view was 'love him or loath him Guto Bebb always raises interesting points'. Now, a few days later, I have become a Cameroon through and through.
So when did my transformation occur? Or does it relate to the growing dismay in the Plaid camp at the collapse of their campaign in Aberconwy?
As I have said before Alwyn - you were much more interesting whne you were less partisan
Guto.

Guto, between Maes-e, Cai's blog, my blog and your own blog we have been engaged in debate for the past five years or so. Sometimes we agree and sometimes we disagree. If I didn't think that you had raised interesting points worthy of debate, quite frankly, I wouldn't have bothered.

I don't know where you get the idea from that I am more or less partisan now than I was in the past. As you know, from numerous exchanges, I am not a member of any political party.

I voted Conservative in 1992, mainly because Colin Shepherd the Conservative candidate in Hereford's Mam was a friend and neighbour, partially because Colin's opponent was Gwynoro (the man who beat Gwynfor in 1979) and because I was voting in England so had no Plaid candidate to support. However, with this one exception, I have always voted for the Plaid Candidate, when one has stood in my electoral division.

I have not been a member of Plaid Cymru for over 10 years, not since Dafydd Wigley said The party has never ever espoused independence. I am an unashamed Welsh Nationalist, I believe in the espousal of independence.

I am also critical of Plaid Cymru's support for socialism. Socialism is based on reliance on the state, the only state that Wales can rely on at the moment is the British state, so reliance on the British state through Socialism is incompatible with Welsh Nationalism.

Having said all that, the only Welsh nationalist party that I can vote for at the moment is Plaid Cymru. I wish that it wasn't. I would love to be a member of a Welsh (one nation) Conservative Party, but such a beast doesn't exist.

I have not changed, Guto, I stand where I stood 30 years ago.

But you have changed, and changed a lot recently.

You use to be a Nationalist, a stalwart of Plaid Cymru, but when you fell out with Plaid you fell out with Cymru too, and you have become more and more opposed to Wales since.

The truth is, Guto, that I have stood my ground as a right wing nationalist, whilst you are moving closer and closer to David Davies, Stephen Crabb and David Jones. If you are elected there is little doubt that you will be anything other than Tory lobby fodder. You'r recent form has suggested that you wont even be a Sir Wyn or a Geraint Morgan.

During the last week I heard you on Hacio, supporting, in a roundabout way, the True Wales lie that the GoW act referendum will be about independence.

On Radio Cymru on Friday you bigged up the Labour Party's campaign in Aberconwy, in order to keep to the British story that the 2010 election race is a Tory v Labour one, despite the fact that you have accepted, for the past two years, that the real battle in Aberconw is between you and Phil!

I am not a member of the Plad camp, but your increasing anti Welsh desperation suggests that it is not their campaign that is the one collapsing in Aberconwy, but it is your own and that you are going for ever inceasing desperate measures in order to shore it up, and betraying Wales and Aberconwy with every step.

In 2003 I spent some time in the polling booth considering whether to vote for you as a possible new voice that could become a bridge between conservative policy and nationalist sentiment. In the end I voted for the incumbent as the best bet. When the result came through my vote wouldn't have made a difference anyway. But I don't think that you are the bridge between nationalism and conservatism that you were 7 years ago, you are now just a dyed-in-the-wool Brit Tory.

Again It is you who has changed Guto, not me!

Graffiti Posters - a shot in the arm or a shot in the foot?

The Tory election poster graffiti spoofs are becoming the defining image of this year's Westminster Election Campaign. Many of them are hilarious, some make valid points, but isn't there is a danger that they are counterproductive?

Even when they take the P*** in the most provocative way out of the Tory Campaign, they draw attention to that campaign. When the "originals" are seen on bill-boards, people are more likely to take notice of them because they will have seen the spoofs.

On the principal that no publicity is bad publicity isn't there a danger that those who oppose the Tories are giving the Conservative Party a boost by drawing huge attention to the party's campaign posters? Isn't every reproduced poster a shot in the arm for the Tories and a shot in the foot for the parties who produce the spoofs?

She's going to vote Conservative BUT.....

This is Julie Fallon from Llandudno. She is featured in a new Tory advert saying why she is going to vote Conservative for the first time.

The things that concern her, according to the clip, are schooling; community development and support for children. Things that we are all in favour of I'm sure. But shouldn't somebody have let Julie know that these are devolved issues and not of great relevance to Welsh voters in the forthcoming Westminster Election?

Her other big reason for voting for the Conservatives is because of her support for family values. Which makes one wonder why the Conservatives refer to her as Julie Fallon rather than by her married name.

Ronnies here:

Following on from my last post Ronnie Hughes now has a blog

http://ronniehughes.wordpress.com/

And Guto Bebb has moved his blog to:

http://aberconwyconservatives.co.uk/category/blogs/

Where's Ronnie?

Aberconwy voters are blessed with being able to follow the musings of three General Election candidates' blogs.

Guto Bebb (Conservative)
http://aberconwyconservatives.typepad.com/my-blog/blog_index.html

Phil Edwards (Plaid Cymru)
http://philedwards4aberconwy.blogspot.com/

and

Mike Priestley (Liberal Democrats)
http://mikepriestley.blogspot.com/

But we are being deprived of any web presence by Ronnie Hughes (Labour). What a shame!

Trouble in Aberconwy's Tory Camp

Aberconwy is a constituency where the Tories have high hopes of gaining an MP in Wales, indeed it is their number five target seat through the UK. If the party can't make gains in places like Aberconwy, then it hasn't got a hope of winning an overall majority in the General Election.

However, Aberconwy will not be a shoo-in for the Tories. Plaid Cymru won the seat in the Assembly elections and in its pre-boundary change equivalent in the Euro-Elections, and Plaid is working hard to gain a similar upset again this year.

Given the nature of the seat one would expect the local Conservative Association to run a tight ship and maintain internal party cohesion. Not so. The local Association is in a mess and riven by internal strife and wrangling.

Last year one of the Tory group on Conwy County Borough Council was suspended from the group after refusing to support a Conservative candidate's co-option onto a local town council. Today another Conservative Councillor, Cllr Dennis Tew announced that he was leaving the Conservative group. Cllr Tew is a member for the Deganwy ward, one of the party's strongholds in the constituency and is President of Aberconwy Conservative Association.

Cllr Tew's defection must be a bitter blow for Aberconwy Tory candidate Guto Bebb. If rumours that Cllr Tew is going to transfer his support to Plaid Cymru's Phil Edwards are true, then the blow will be even harder.

It's not Posh it's the Old School Tie!

I have just listened to yesterday's edition of The One Programme on Sky Plus, which rehashed the whole posh argument about Labour's attack on policy being made on the playing fields of Eton.

I feel that the media has got it wrong (dare I say biased wrong!) It has got sod all to do with being posh; it is all to do with nepotism and jobs for the boys.

The school I attended, Ysgol y Gader Dolgellau, formally Dolgelly Grammar School; established in 1666 has only produced one MP and has never produced a PM. Most of Cameron's prospective cabinet have gone to the same half dozen schools!

If half the cabinet had attended Byker Grove Comprehensive School, my eyebrows would be raised; I would think that there was something funny going on!

It has got sod all to do with posh, it has to do with an Eton education making you fit for Premiership and cabinet membership but an Ysgol y Creuddyn, or Sandfeilds Comprehensive, education making you unsuitable and cutting you out!

Having said that, one of the candidates in my constituency attended the same school as me! So Phil Edwards, Plaid Cymru has my Old School Tie vote :-)